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Head-smacking stat of the day, via Bloomberg Econ: By 2030, Trump's tariff regime will make the global economy $1T smaller - with 1/3 of the losses in the US (690k jobs lost) - than if the US had just stayed in the TPP. bloomberg.com/news/features/…

Among countless other things that make me happy about it, Poland did it without an "industrial policy". Just stable policy, modest but consistent growth, the craziness of our politicians restrained by the EU, and a broad-based economy - you can't point to one sector driving it

The % of manufacturers who "delayed or cancelled investments" because of tariffs is really the most devastating one for tariff advocates The "smart" theory was that it would raise prices to force companies to invest domestically, turns out it only makes building in the US harder

"The patriotic defense of traditional liberal American values that I saw on display at the No Kings protest gave me more hope for our democracy than anything I’ve seen since I went to an Obama rally in 2008." noahpinion.blog/p/feeling-caut…

"[W]orkers who first come to the country on student visas not only thrive, but typically out-earn their native-born counterparts [and] are more likely to work in jobs performing R&D or to be entrepreneurs" agglomerations.substack.com/p/student-visa…

In a new piece for @orfamerica, Dr. Marta Bengoa argues that the hastily announced London framework may provide temporary relief from U.S.-China #trade tensions but fails to address fundamental questions about America's economic relationship with China. Read more:

Breaking news: The Federal Reserve has cut its outlook for the US economy, with policymakers split on whether they would be able to cut interest rates at all this year. on.ft.com/4kQEJWS

One of the most effective things the U.S. or any other nation can do to ensure its competitiveness in AI is to welcome high-skilled immigration and international students who have the potential to become high-skilled. For centuries, the U.S. has welcomed immigrants, and this

Every American is a citizen of New York City. It's so much a cultural and financial hub of our country that what happens in NYC is consequential for all of us. And I'm not an expert on the exigencies of the details of NYC economic policy, but I do think the Democratic Socialist

Institutional economists engaging with culture Daron Acemoglu & James Robinson have a new, interesting paper on culture. In a rather Weberian way, they argue that politics, institutions and culture are “co-determined.” Free download of preprint version: nber.org/system/files/w…

Entrevista de C.Sánchez Carlos Sánchez a Olivier Blanchard: "Si crece más el déficit en EEUU es probable que haya una crisis presupuestaria" cc Juan F Jimeno elconfidencial.com/economia/2025-…

US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities are sharpening the focus on one option Iran has yet to really deploy: disrupting regional oil trade, especially through the critical Strait of Hormuz bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

THREAD: Iran's Parliament approved closing the Strait of Hormuz (pending National Security Council approval). My thoughts on it. This isn't just geopolitics—it has the potential to trigger an economic earthquake. Here's why: martabengoa.com/op-eds 1/5

Matthew Fulton DUPLeader.bsky.social Stephen Nolan Iran is only producing about 5%-6% of global supply but around a third of sea-borne oil goes through the Straits. Useful primer from Dr. Marta Bengoa

Lagarde: As inflation is set to stabilise around our 2% target, the Governing Council recently decided to lower key interest rates again by 25 basis points. Amid exceptional uncertainty, we’ll follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining monetary policy.