My two cents this morning, given the margin in Elmwood-Transcona, Singh leaving the CASA & abandoning the carbon tax saved the riding. The NDP only lost 1.6% of their vote leaving a 4.1PP lead. Their average vote loss this parliament prior to this has been 6PP.

English food is good.

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I updated my byelection swing aggerate and we are now looking at: LPC: -5.7 CPC: +7.7 NDP: -3.1 GPC: +0.9 BQ: +1.1 PPC: -2.4 Oth: +1.5 Based on 2021, this implies the following standings: LPC: 27 CPC: 41.5 NDP: 14.7 GPC: 3.2 BQ: 8.7 PPC: 2.5 Oth: 2.4

Worth noting with these numbers is that this is an overestimation of the LPC and underestimation of the CPC since we have no BC & ATL data, both regions projected to be swinging significantly.

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