Russia’s fundamental case screams buy, but investors will likely be waiting for the geopolitical clouds to clear.

Eyes remain on geopolitics – the last few days have seen little in the way of market moving headlines, but the embers continue to burn and the temporary pause in tension is fragile.

More high-level ‘shuttle diplomacy’ is ahead this and next week, suggesting the swords of each camp will remain sheathed for now, at least, which should further ease market jitters. For now, the surge in Omicron plays second fiddle. #BCSGM #EmergingMarkets #investing

Putin signaled that Russia "will do everything to find compromises that suits everyone."

that Russia has legitimate national security concerns that the West can't ignore, but rather must address.

Not a certainty, yet a path toward de-escalation on the NATO/Ukraine-Russia front appears plausible, as talks more visibly feature the exercise of real politic and an acknowledgement by French President Macron

The diplomatic ball continues to roll – a wait and see game. Not to be ignored, the US PPI came in hot raising the ante that the US Fed will adopt a more hawkish bent – sentiment may be tempered ahead of the US FOMC minutes later today. #BCSGM #EmergingMarkets #investing

Whether the move presages a larger full scale drawdown and the legitimate security concerns of the various camps can be satisfactorily addressed remain open questions, but, for a period uncertain, the specter of war appears to have receded.

At first glance, a step back from the brink appears to have been made – Russia has begun a partial withdrawal of military forces from the Ukrainian border.

The Fed will also continue to reduce the monthly pace of net asset purchases, bringing them to an end in early March. #BCSGM #EmergingMarkets #investing

Minutes from the last FOMC meeting revealed policymakers considered it appropriate to hike the key rate commencing with the next meet in March and, if inflation remained elevated, appropriate to tighten policy more rapidly than earlier geared.

Meanwhile, still surging inflation and strong numbers out of the US (Retail and Industrial beat), thus far, support the US Fed’s increasingly hawkish bent –

Hence, the jury is out as to whether the threat of invasion has de-escalated, unsettling risk appetite.

At second glance, various observers doubt that a step back from the brink has been made – several camps (including the US) claim Russia’s partial drawdown of military forces is a mere reshuffling to other areas along the Ukrainian border.

In the current environment, speculation about near-term events seems largely irrelevant. Signs suggest a deterioration, though hopes remain in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia today. Expect extreme volatility if and when trading is open. #BCSGM #EmergingMarkets #investing