Stocks and BTC are declining after the BEA’s third estimate showed US real GDP grew +3.8% SAAR in Q2 2025 (vs –0.6% in Q1 and 3.3% in the second estimate), the fastest since Q3 2023. Stronger growth pushed markets toward a higher-for-longer Fed view making money costlier and

Major Wall Street indices are falling as investors reassess the path of rate cuts after stronger-than-expected economic data.

Over 2 weeks, the Advanced Sentiment Index moved from extremely bullish 86% to bearish 15%. Zones below 20% typically generate technical bounces, but for an upward reversal it's important to return the index above 40-45% and turn the SMA-30 upward.

LTH Distribution (>12m) is currently $76.7M per week, a low run-rate of old-coin selling. Z-score −0.5, indicating distribution is below its historical average and pressure from long-term holders is moderately subdued.

Currently 1.5% of STH are at a loss with growing STH Market Value and Realized Value and STH share = 22%, meaning short-term holders are almost all in profit, with few forced sales. A vulnerability signal for the entire cohort will appear if STH Loss % quickly goes >10% and STH

Three bearish clusters have formed on futures down to the $113K level - fuel for a new peak has arrived.

Squeezed bands + Z-Score at the lower boundary = compressed spring.

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Buyers are currently dominating on CEXs: the 30-day net flow remains in negative territory at around −170K BTC, meaning approximately 170,000 BTC more left exchanges than came in over the month a clear buyer dominance.

Gold prices climbed to a new ATH of $3,804 per ounce, supported by growing expectations of further rate cuts in the US and a weakening dollar.

Don’t expect the market to repeat itself,times change and so does perception. The market has already gone through five stages: 1. Early wild volatility 2. Double peaks of the young cycle (stepwise distribution) 3. Plateau of a mature bullish impulse 4. Pendulum with shocks

STH SOPR = 1 means that the average sale by short-term holders is happening around their cost basis, putting the market at an equilibrium point. When the metric hovers around 1 momentum typically slows down, since any move above 1 quickly turns yesterday’s breakeven holders

Shares of Chinese gold mining company Zijin Gold surged more than 60% today following a successful IPO and a strong debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The IPO raised nearly USD 3.2 billion, making it the world’s second-largest listing this year after the battery giant CATL.

A federal government shutdown is becoming an increasingly real possibility.

30-day Cumulative Realized P&L - spikes show how much profit participants are locking in during ralliescumulatively over the last month. Currently, the metric has dropped to $21B. In this cycle, Cumulative P/L below $10B has formed the ground for reversal. The second chart is

Gold prices climbed to a new all-time high of $3,863 per ounce, extending their upward momentum as the U.S. government shutdown began after Democrats and Republicans failed to reach a short-term funding deal.

Average Stablecoin NetFlow to CEX has gone negative and has been declining since September 22, spot liquidity is decreasing, while BTC price remains elevated. This is a concerning signal. Over the last couple of days, ETFs saw inflows of $947M, which is supporting the market,

The $118K level is likely to decide where the market goes next.

Bitcoin in equilibrium with growth potential to $130K via CryptoQuant.com cryptoquant.com/quicktake/68dd…