Same thing I tell my clients year after year

#OPEC production surveys for August paint a picture of reduced production, but while Reuters saw a 340,000 b/d reduction, Bloomberg put the figure somewhat lower at 70,000 b/d, both highlighting Libya as the main contributor. The UAE and Iraq showed no signs of adhering to

🇺🇸 Rotten JOLTS job openings. And quite a drop for the cyclically important construction sector. I still view 5.5% unemployment or higher likely in 2025.

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Everyone is piling into Consumer Staples stenoresearch.com/watch-series/p…

😂

Really a mixed bag of goodies from the US currently

They shut down the economy & you fire your workforce. Then it reopens, but you can only get eg 2/3 your WF back, and you can only add workers as they return (or enter the country). What does the hiring rate look like over time? & the vacancy rate? And when you've finally got all

Hmmm....

Challenger job cuts cooled to a 1% y/y gain in August from 9% in July, and a 20% gain in June. However, despite the seeming improvement, job cuts were quite elevated in August 2023: announced layoffs spiked to 81% above the pre-COVID norm for the month and their highest level

Hør, hvordan du kan tjene penge på legaliseringen af cannabis i USA, der ifølge Mikkel Rosenvold får et stigende antal mennesker til at købe akvarier og sidde derhjemme og se Discovery Channel. Andreas Steno Larsen Anders Olsen

Payroll preview: markets don't focus too much on data revisions having reacted to the initial estimate. But when you get an avalanche of consecutive downward revisions as we have had recently with JOLTS, this is telling us the wind has DECISIVELY changed direction H/T (((The Daily Shot)))

Same trend we are observing in our Nowcasts. Not a catastrophe but weakening is evident now

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Who dictates what’s misinformation? And what are the repercussions if the govt is wrong later on like Covid?

New report out to 3Fourteen clients updating our housing recession model. For the first time since 2020, both multi-family and single-family housing units under construction are falling simultaneously. W/o an uptick in housing activity, construction job losses are coming.

China frontloaded a lot of activity ahead of tariffs and the export momentum has now come to a halt More -> stenoresearch.com/em-watch-china…

Breaking: the oil market

Dash for USD cash now! Exactly as we warned about

I have to admit that Gold price action is surprisingly resilient It’s the one thing I have had wrong since July and I have had it wrong hard so far Still deeply in the money in a tough market