started with flask and jinja back in the day then worked with next.js, svelte, what not and now, again: html, htmx, eta and javascript

⚡️This is the hard truth people do not want to say out loud: You cannot compound when the system is subtracting faster than you can add. When inflation eats the base, taxes skim the flow, and real yields stay negative, the old compounding model becomes a museum artifact. That

for those who never heard of daily close rebalancing… the explanation is simple if you ever did algo trading. a lot of systematic strategies use the closing price as a primary data source. the higher the timeframe, the bigger the liquidity spike that gets compressed into a

is 0.156 brier decent for polymarket btc up/down 15 min markets to market make profitably? what's the polymarkets brier on those markets?

The attacks on Europe I've seen here the last couple of days, including from people I've generally considered interesting and sophisticated, have been getting unhinged... I get that EU has problems - GDPR clickthroughs are dumb, Chat Control is awful, they need to be less

man there is no other way to say it, but polymarket historical data api is absolutely dogshit

cross checked this with poly's implied brier and they are about the same i used a pretty simple model to derive these probabilities though

the era of ai slop is upon us as someone previously said, this discovery is so great it should go into principia mathematica

The future is closer than it may appear

The only thing matching the number of geniuses “explaining” profitable Polymarket traders' strats (and being wrong) is the number of people who actually believe them

This is correct advice. For 99.99% of people, if you are not a professional trader (as in, you are employed by a firm to trade their capital, or you run such a firm) then active trading is -EV for you, and the more you trade, the more -EV it is.

This is true, but most ppl will not listen and continue to trade anyways, and I don’t blame them! So if you’re going to here’s my 2c The secret to making money as retail trader, the only one I’ve found at least, is to luck maxx Meaning you should understand that the only way

Am I trading better now as a quant, compared to YOLO gambling in the past? No But am I having more *fun*? Also no

very cool

for all the retail traders crushed by the advice to not trade you can always pivot to twitter larping and trade course selling

accurate

options are a mind disease, for two reasons: one - they are the wrong instrument for what most people are trying to trade. most people want delta exposure. options are an instrument on future volatility. if you want to use them for delta, sure, but very few ppl outside of