Wave around 60N will probably become a storm over the wkd. No direct impact on the U.S.,watch out in Bermuda.Deep trog coming into the NE protects the East Coast next wk from any storms coming from the tropics,but could produce homegrown development late next wknd into early Sept

Bernie Rayno Batchelor La.

Wave near 35W has dry air to overcome,but if it can, stays south of 20N (I think yes to both) than it develops due to low wind shear.The tropical Atl can be tricky but I think this becomes a hurricane by Mon,impacts the Lesser Antilles Wed.U.S. impacts down the road?not sure yet

Congratulations and happy 35TH anniversary to Bernie Rayno - Bernie Rayno and Joe Lundberg. September 4, 1990, to today marks 35 glorious years working with AccuWeather together. Magic marvel in television today.

More Chaos than Clarity I’m afraid. Will Gabrielle form in the Atlantic? youtu.be/0-QyOm38yfo?si… via YouTube

The Forecast Feed: Window for Tropics Opens Sept. 28 youtu.be/Mp_1e35d9Jc?si… via YouTube….a shorter version of Chaos to Clarity on the AccuWeather Network

The Forecast Feed: Could We Have 2 Tropical Storms This Week? youtu.be/eHYPnBmcDCE?si… via YouTube

On the FEED over the last wk I discussed the window for U.S. Tropical Impacts starting Sept 28. This will verify. Tropical wave along 65 W has some shear to overcome. I believe it will & develop into a storm this wknd. Florida to Carolinas is potential impact zone. More later.

Wave along 62 W will organize Fri into wknd as wind shear lowers.Conditions not perfect but good enough for a tropical storm (can't rule out hurricane).The pattern Mon would favor a move toward Carolinas,but storm to the east complicates overall flow so a little unsure.maps below

On today's FEED I will be conentrating on wave along 62W. I think this becomes a named storm this weekend. Overall pattern would support a move to toward Carolina Coast Mon before a turn to the NNE. Competing storm to the East complicates things quite a bit.

Full Fledged Chaos to Clarity on early next week coming up. I will go over rational behind the forecast. This is the wave I have been tracking since last week. As we discussed, if it cleared the many hurdles it was the one to watch for the U.S. I will send out link when ready.

Chaos to Clarity: Will There be a U.S. Landfalling Storm Next Week? Zoning in on the Carolinas but other scenarios exist. youtu.be/U3V5M06Xsls?si… via YouTube

If I had hair I would likely be pulling it out! Chaos to Clarity: Will Tug-of-War Lead to Carolina Landfall? youtu.be/tCVyyJLYww0?si… via YouTube

I believe the window for Carolina landfall from TD9 is closing, it has to be north of Bahamas Sun eve for a landfall.Its moving slow.Question is how close can it get to SC coast before pulling away.Tend to trust EURO which means prolonged rain,wind & surge for SC/NC coast Tue-Wed

200 mb shows very nice ventilation in SW Altantic Tue which tells me this will go to a hurricane and I can see CAT 2. Intensity is always very tricky to forecast and I must admit it is not one of my strengths.

chaos to clarity I recorded Friday Still applicable. I explained that the location of what will be Imelda sun night would dictate where or not there would be a landfall in Carolina. As stated earlier, the slower movement tells me there will not be a landfall.

By the way, my comment pertaining to the UKMET being good & ECMWF being bad was not assigning blame or praise to models.Any inaccurate/accurate statements I made pertaining to TD9 were mine alone not the models. My job is to use the tools (models) to make a forecast.

The white collar division of the FBI needs to investigate Rich Bisaccia for stealing money from the Packers.

I swear my Packers special teams suck every year