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Andrea Kendall-Taylor

@AKendallTaylor

Director, Transatlantic Security Program @CNASdc. Former DNIO for Russia, senior analyst at CIA. Adjunct Prof at Yale and Georgetown. Views my own.

calendar_today22-09-2011 01:10:11

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Russia's war effort in Ukraine has benefitted from China, Iran, and North Korean support. But their collaboration in Ukraine is just the tip of the iceberg.

Read our take (Richard Fontaine) on the Axis of Upheaval. 1/

Paywall free link: foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/red….

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Working together, they enhance one another’s military capabilities; dilute the efficacy of U.S. foreign policy tools, including sanctions; and hinder the ability of Washington and its partners to rally coalitions that can stand against their destabilizing actions

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Moscow has been the main instigator of this axis. The more the Kremlin relies on these countries, the more it must give away in return, increasing the military capabilities of U.S. adversaries and eroding key U.S. advantages.

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Their convergence is creating an increasingly viable alternative to the US-led order...creating a new center of gravity that other countries dissatisfied with the existing order can turn to. Global orders characterized by 2 competing orders have historically invited conflict.

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Already, since Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Hamas’s attack on Israel threatens a wider war; Azerbaijan forcibly took control of Nagorno-Karabakh; tensions flared between Serbia and Kosovo; & Venezuela threatened to seize territory in neighboring Guyana. Coups are on the rise.

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US policy will need to address the destabilizing effects of revisionist countries’ acting in concert, and it should try to disrupt their coordinated efforts to subvert important international rules and institutions.

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Countering the Axis of Upheaval starts in Ukraine. Defeating Russia there is the most impactful way to thwart this rising challenge. Washington should not ignore Russian aggression in Europe to focus on rising Chinese power in Asia. They are linked.

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