Looking at the underlying numbers, the 'public' backing Kate Forbes over Swinney is driven almost solely by Tory voters. Not much of an electoral asset to appeal to a section of voters that will steadfastly never endorse the SNP or independence.

🚨Countdown to General Election 2024!🚨 Check out the #GE2024 leaflets already posted at openelections.co.uk. So far, we have leaflets from four parties across 13 constituencies. Please upload your #GE24 #GE2024 leaflets directly to our site (openelections.co.uk/upload-a-leafl……).

Who votes by post? Research by Caitlin Milazzo et al shows it's those with time/mobility constraints, esp the elderly. Older people tend to vote Cons so this is an 'interesting' approach to take. Read the research in our Parliamentary Affairs journal. buff.ly/3QAoznl

🚨Countdown to General Election 2024! 🚨 We now have 59 #GE24 leaflets posted on our site! Check them out - openelections.co.uk Thank you to everyone who has uploaded their #GE2024 leaflets so far! Please keep uploading them at openelections.co.uk/upload-a-leafl…

Issue prevalence in our #GE24 leaflets so far: 🩺Health: 81% 💰 Economy: 75% 🍃 Environment: 68% 👩‍🎓 Education: 32% 🏛️ Governance: 31% 👩‍👩‍👧Social Welfare: 24% 🛬Immigration: 5% 🇪🇺 Brexit/Europe: 3% Caitlin Milazzo Siim Trumm Alan Duggan

Nothing says election spirit like leaflets! Over the next 5 weeks, the Open Elections UK team will be analysing the content of your leaflets. How can you help? Upload your #GE2024 leaflets to ElectionLeaflets.org or openelections.co.uk/upload-a-leafl…. You upload them, we'll code them!

How it started... How it's going...

We have had lots of interest in the use of tactical messages (e.g., "X can't win here", bar charts) in leaflets. What does our latest data say about the use of these messages in #GE24 vs. previous elections?

As of today, Open Elections UK archive includes 600+ coded leaflets, covering 221 constituencies in England, Scotland and Wales! Caitlin Milazzo Siim Trumm Alan Duggan

Great to see our Open Elections UK research featured in The Times and The Sunday Times! Siim Trumm Alan Duggan

We've just added our 1,000th content-coded leaflet for #GE2024! We now have leaflets from 270 constituencies in England, Scotland and Wales. Siim Trumm Alan Duggan

Happy Election Day from the OpenElections team! It has been a fabulous 6 wks of leaflets. As of today, we have +10k coded leaflets from 5 GEs, including +1.2k from #GE24 - and plenty more still to be coded. Watch this space for our post-election analysis! Siim Trumm Alan Duggan

🚨 Publication Alert (1/4): PRXJournal tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… #OpenAccess Liam Kneafsey, Alan Duggan and I conduct a survey experiment to test the effects of negative campaigning on voting intentions in Ireland. #STV is 🤯 but great to observe complex mechanisms behind NC!

🍊 Fresh out! 🪃Alan Duggan Michele Crepaz & Liam Kneafsey examine if negative campaign messaging is effective for attackers in multiparty systems? 🇮🇪 👉 bit.ly/4fS8tRd #OA #politicaladvertising #election #surveyexperiment #Ireland #facebook

Does negative election campaigning work in Ireland? Analysis by Michele Crepaz HAPP at Queen's Queen's University Belfast 🎓 Alan Duggan FoSS Nottingham Politics & Liam Kneafsey Dept of Political Science, Trinity College Dublin Trinity College Dublin We are now Research Ireland rte.ie/brainstorm/202…

Philip Dwyer was told he wasn't wanted in Ballaghaderreen this evening. He was at a vigil held by local people in support of an alleged assault victim. The locals have genuine concerns over incidents in the town. But they don't want Dwyer anywhere near their town. Well done folks

Local Leaflets: Constituency Issue Messaging at the 2024 General Election Caitlin Milazzo Siim Trumm Alan Duggan Part of the forthcoming general election SI edited by @politicalquarterly.bsky.social SI eds Peter Sloman and @colm_m onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11… #campaigning #candidates #communication #leaflets