The transition from what you-thought to what-is produces cognitive dissonance. Dissonance hurts. Consequently investors are, as of today, universally Bullish Bears or Bearish Bulls. A temporary transitional coping strategy that resolves downward.

Since 1982 debt buyers deemed genius as global int rates fell creating a sea of liquidity, fat and happy bankers and broadly supportive feedback loops for business and consumer. Lower-for-longer has reversed. Virtuous now vicious. Charles Ponzi revealed when buyers redeem.

Jaw-dropping quotes on just how close we came to catastrophe today. Senior banker describing the leveraged unwind in Gilts as coming close to triggering a "Lehman moment". Asset manager accusing the Bank of England of ignoring calls to intervene sooner 🤯 ft.com/content/756e81…

Lyric Hughes Hale Clear, concise, contrarian and compelling.

There is a central bank put on bond prices, as declines in the price of these perceived safe assets will lead to the insolvency of the financial system. This post describes the problem and suggests a pause in the relentless bond selloff is close. fedguy.com/solvency-const…

They're called digital assets because they go from 1 to 0

Hit and Run Trading CPI is not inflation. CPI methodology minimizes print via hedonic adjustments, buy/rent gradient and “dynamic” seasonal adjustments. Remember the same entity that prints CPI pays for it via COLA adjustments. This goes back to the Boskin Commison (1996)

I continue to write a newsletter for 2 reasons: I am passionate about markets but writing about them makes me do the tough analysis I might otherwise pass on and miss things and The loyalty and feedback of subscribers like Matt is priceless

Buy and Hold may work in a bull market. Otherwise it's Hit and Run. t3live.com/blog/jeff-coop…

A visual dictionary of philosophy – major schools of thought in minimalist geometric graphics themarginalian.org/2014/04/14/phi…

Nonresidential Bldgs construction spending in 2023 is going to really surprise, to the upside. Expect Nonres Bldgs spending up 15%, driven predominantly by Mnfg bldgs which will be up over 30%. Mnfg Bldgs Nov 2022 SAAR is already up 18% over avg 2022 spending.

Remarkable chart 👇 Commodities on China autopilot. Ht Mario Cavaggioni

217 Republicans just voted to cut Veterans care. 2024 is coming. We will NEVER let you forget this!

Today’s update for Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) shows net % of respondents reporting stronger demand for commercial & industrial loans fell to -55.6% for large firms (blue); -55.3% for small firms (orange)

When Lenders of Last Resort need a loan.

x.com/EPBResearch/st…

Mark Zandi Experienced lenders know on a full-cost, total time horizon basis, REO has less PV than puking the paper. Shadow lenders (with only a handful of exceptions) do not have staffed REO depts. The puke paper trade together with DSCR covenants (tick tock) will be signifcant factors.

Sep. 5 1929 Irving Fisher's rival, Roger Babson, declared that “sooner or later a crash is coming, and it may be terrific.” This led Fisher to respond (as quoted in NYT in that Oct) that “stock prices have reached ‘what looks like a permanently high plateau.'"

From the river to the sea, they cried, This land it must be free. From the river to the sea, they screamed, What we demand must be. The Jordan’s banks will overflow With crimson current high, Awash with dead unto the Dead, Till Galilee runs dry. ... 1/

If your Christianity causes you to be offended by someone asking the most powerful person in the country to be merciful towards the powerless, then you have deeply, deeply misunderstood the teachings of Jesus Christ.