What spatial structure and dynamics emerge in tropical forests affected by fires at their edges? We explored this question theoretically by modelling fire and forest spread as contagion processes on grass patches. 1/n pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn…

This is a paper to be proud of Jon Moore & Arthur Argles! A really elegant piece of work which hypotheses that there is an optimum mortality rate for a forest which depends on the growth-rate of the trees. 'Live fast, die young' now has a theoretical basis!

Not me, I'm safely away from the coastline but been sent these. Good morning Plymouth, please stay safe. 📸 Paul Montgomery

Ever wondered how good CMIP models are for regional scale carbon cycle? Actually not too bad. Based on regional assessment of present day carbon balance from RECCAP2, we assessed CMIP6 models. The multi-model mean did very well (green boxes) agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20…

Whoop! Paper final version published - Constraining the carbon cycle in JULES-ES-1.0 gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/10…

Climate change and deforestation risk an Amazon tipping point Our new @nature paper led by Bernardo M Flores On current trends, we estimate that by 2050, 10 - 47% of Amazonian forests will exposed to compounding disturbances risking critical transitions nature.com/articles/s4158…

Is the risk and impact of wildfires changing with the #climate? 🔥 Find out more 👇 #GetClimateReady

An interesting theoretical hypothesis of #forest demography called "#Demography Optimality" by Peter Cox. nature.com/articles/s4159…. He has been named as a highly-cited author every year from 2014 onwards. More at his #esiStateOfTheArt talk on 25 March 👉 exeter.ac.uk/esi/people/fea…

The vegetation model Robust Ecosystem Demography (RED) updates plant #demography. The population is partitioned into mass classes and updated via a continuity equation. This allows for the size-dependence of growth and mortality to be modelled. gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/40… (1/2)

I may go on about non-structural carbohydrates but you have to admit they do quite neatly explain declines in nocturnal plant respiration. Read more in my new paper with Peter Cox, Lina Mercado, Dan Bruhn and Nina Raoult published with Springer Nature. nature.com/articles/s4324…

Rebecca Millington is presenting her work using the L4 dataset collected by Plymouth Marine Lab at #AMEMR2024 . This valuable monthly timeseries is crucial for model validation in the NECCTON project. HaDEA UK Research and Innovation Copernicus EU UN Ocean Decade

Important new paper by Mark Williamson Exeter University Mathematics addressing the question: "Why does the emergent constraint on ECS from global temperature variability work for CMIP5 and not CMIP6?" @FemkeNijsse Global Systems Institute UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/82…

Our ambitious experiment in the Amazon rainforest - ⁦AmazonFACE⁩ 6 rings of towers: 3 will keep CO2 levels within them high so we can study how rainforest trees respond. eg. does growth keep increasing at high CO2? Crucial knowledge for calculating future carbon budgets

Yesterday the first paper from my PhD, 'Tipping Mechanisms in a conceptual model of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation' was published online, and can be read here: doi.org/10.1002/wea.76… Sacha Sinet Paul Ritchie Exeter University Mathematics Research at Exeter Royal Meteorological Society