The homicide rate has not only completely reversed the post-COVID spike but has also broken the decade-long uptrend from before the pandemic.

This is not a good system

Sector update. Lots of red!

Everyone talks about the same geniuses like: Einstein, Tesla, or Hawking. But for me, there's one woman who stands head and shoulder above all. Sadly, her legacy was a heartbreaking tragedy. Here's her story... (thread) 🧵

15 Day Forecasts & Range [+/-]: 🐂 S&P 500 ▲+1.9% [+4.5% to -1.6%] 🅱️ Bitcoin ▲+1.1% [+9.4% to -4.7%] 🏛️ 10-Year Treasury Yield ▼-0.4% [+1.3% to -2.5%] 🚨 VIX Volatility Index ▼-13.7% [-3.6% to -25.1%] ⚜️ Gold ▼-0.3% [+3.1% to -2.1%] as of 8/8/24 4lights.substack.com/p/forecast-fri…

UK & Japanese GDP numbers are in, which means another update to my G7 post-COVID GDP growth chart! Here's each country's cumulative increase in real GDP, since just before the pandemic: 🇺🇸 +10.1% 🇨🇦 +5.2% (thru Q1) 🇮🇹 +4.0% 🇫🇷 +3.3% 🇬🇧 +2.3% 🇩🇪 +0.3% 🇯🇵 +0.2%

Quite a turnaround.

Congratulations to all our first time visitors who learned this week that #Chicago is indeed a gorgeous city. Come back soon. PS Winter isn’t that bad I swear … most of the time

1. Highest consumer sentiment since May 2. Lowest 1-yr inflation expectations since Dec 2020 3. Lowest retail gasoline prices since February 4. S&P 500 ~1% from all-time highs 5. 30-yr mortgage rates lowest since Feb 2023 6. US household net worth (Q2) all-time high 🇺🇸

What normally happens to the SP500 in a #ratecut cycle? 4lights.substack.com

I’ve hesitated to say this at the risk of sounding hyperbolic, but with last week’s big GDP revisions, there is no denying it: This is among the best performing economies in my 35+ years as an economist. Economic growth is rip-roaring, with real GDP up 3% over the past year.

Payroll employment rises by 254,000 in September; unemployment rate changes little at 4.1% #JobsReport #BLSdata bls.gov/news.release/e…

8PM EDT: This is nothing short of astronomical. I am at a loss for words to meteorologically describe you the storms small eye and intensity. 897mb pressure with 180 MPH max sustained winds and gusts 200+ MPH. This is now the 4th strongest hurricane ever recorded by pressure on

This decline in violent crime is evident in not just the FBI reports, but also an independent survey by the BJS.

Indeed, the decline in homicide rates over the past year is the largest decline on record.

They don’t want you to know about this