I’m begging people to go back and read the contemporaneous reporting of the housing market from spring of 2005 to mid 2006. It was meticulously documented by the mainstream press how insane consumer behavior was, and how prices subsequently began rapidly declining.

Oh man. A must listen.

The ChicagoFed unemployment rate nowcast, which imho is one of the most valuable labor market indicators during the ongoing shutdown, shows a very small upward increase (to 4.35%) in their advance October estimate.

We have big budget deficits, an AI capex boom, a generationally-low free cash flow yield for the S&P 500 given the capex boom and investor optimism…and maybe 25k monthly job growth, possibly negative. Very strange.

Big update to our US Tariffs Paper: 📦 Pass-through ≈20% (using applied tariff rates, accounting for exemptions) 💸 “Cheapflation”: cheaper goods within categories saw 2× higher inflation 📈 Cumulative CPI impact: +0.7 percentage points More details pricinglab.org/files/Tracking…

San Francisco rents up double digits. NYC rents (and much of the country) are now negative YoY. AI spend ain’t only going to data centers.

Hmm...🧐

Massive W for the Jays considering the result last night. Series could easily have been over tonight.

Update: it has not.

😂

Oof

Something something K-Shaped Economy via Chipotle... h/t Conor Sen

Yesavage absolutely dealing.

Dodgers have more "Talent". The Blue Jays play better baseball.

Uh oh Asymmetric Trades

November futures really taking a licking...cash market going to following suit, at least for SPF. Not a healthy market, and still way too much supply out in the market. Until we get a solid 1-2 BBF of sustained supply cuts, it will be more the same.