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latest glance of Aust Econ Momentum: 3 month view = flat = waiting

coming up extremely tight timetable for Sept #OpEx this week as markets digest 🇺🇸 FOMC a couple of days earlier and seek to set up for US election

2 day meeting about to commence last 🇺🇸 rate move: 31 July 23 = ending 14 months of rate hikes (started post-pandemic hikes on 16 Mar 22 - 3 weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine)

Westpac's leading index of anticipated economic activity compared to trend 3rd material 📉drop back in last 12 mths = flat 🗣️ "near-term growth momentum remains weak" [overall]. "Commodity price fall a significant drag on momentum. Other components stable rather than weak."

🇬🇧 UK inflation lifts📈 core: +3.6% 📈 (from 3.3%) ~ services 📈 +5.6% (from +5.2%) ~ goods 📉 -0.9% (from -0.6%) both negative ╰┈╰┈➤ goods prices falling (disinflation) and at a faster rate than last month ... while services prices surge

🇺🇸 #FOMC Federal Reserve drops rates 📉 by -50bps #FFR 🗣️"job gains have slowed ... inflation remains somewhat elevated"

🗣️ "we've waited and that patience has paid dividends"

Us Central Bank moves ↘️⬇️ - 50bps but ... markets subdued #FOMC #FFR

🇺🇸 #FOMC joins all [comparable] central banks📉 rates ▷ -50bps sees Federal Reserve move from catchup to lead 📉 #RBA sitting - next meeting 24 Sept

Core CPI inflation 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇦🇺 is c 1.5% above where it was before the pandemic Dropping central Bank rates may have more to do with holding down rising unemployment and managing exchange rates #FX $ ₤ € ¥

US rate cut was so anticipated (priced in) that bond yields have now risen after the #FOMC announcement

ABS releases #LabourForce data #Unemployment was revised down 📉for last month (July) and fell 📉this month (August) #UnderEmployment rose 📈as more people looked for more hours work

#LabourForce weekly hours worked 📈 slightly

🇨🇦 🇺🇸 linked but distinct economies Canada's 2 x 25bps rate cuts (July + Sept) anticipated the US -50bps move

Has the use of exploding walkie-talkies and exploding pagers in #Lebanon breached the 1997 Anti-Personnel Mines Convention? ≋ maybe not 164 countries have signed the #Ottawa_Convention - neither #Lebanon nor #Israel has signed #mines

not necessarily - no always-true path on the way 📈- it's legitimate to wait, to give buyers a chance to withdraw from buying at higher prices - then hit hard on the way 📉- it's sensible to squeeze buyers a little longer, while unemployment is stays acceptable - then back off

Labour Participation Rate - at all time high Employed+UnderEmployed+UnEmployed (=available workforce) as % of working age population

latest 🇦🇺 big numbers updated for #LabourForce

calming - but at higher levels

not mentioned - y'day #FOMC drops overnight #FFR by 50bps - rates are higher now -everywhere else in the curve - higher than they were 8 days ago (Aust and US)[+UK+Euro]