Updated US Liquidity Picture - Heading into Q2 So far leading up to this point of the cycle, liquidity conditions have remained favorable for several reasons: -the RRP facility has absorbed the Fed balance sheet run-off (QT) -the QRA has shifted to a higher % bills -the Fed

Follow-up on the wave of corporate debt defaults I spoke about below: This is only going to get worse as we head into Q2. The maturity walls are getting larger & larger from here (276B with payments nearly doubling next quarter). Eventually something substantial will break if

Very Important March FOMC Meeting Tomorrow Here are a two key things to watch. They will be what investors are focused on at this meeting: 1. Hawkish revision to the dot plot regarding FOMC participants' assessment of appropriate monetary policy. At the December 2023 meeting,

$BTC (2019-2020) VS. CURRENT You may be noticing recently that #Bitcoin has been showing relative weakness vs equities, which have been on a historic tear. Now, this may not continue, but it is something I'm monitoring. That's because something similar happened back in 2019

$BTC / H4 I'm still not convinced this recent move up is going to lead to any *substantial* breakout for #Bitcoin until I see one of four things playout: 1. $BTC.D needs to increase substantially to 55%+, basically Bitcoin-only season (money will need to come out of altcoins in

$BTC My followers were prepared for this Q2 correction weeks ago.🎯 I truly hope that I saved atleast one of you some money, so that you can now deploy at more favorable prices over the coming weeks. If not, that's ok. We'll bounce back!

INITIAL QRA SUMMARY The Treasury just released their Q2 + Q3 funding estimates, and they came in somewhat bearish for liquidity (so far). Not only did they revise up their borrowing estimates, they also revised up the TGA cash balance in September to ~850B (no large TGA drain).

Before and After: #Bitcoin Correction🎯 Called this corrective move in $BTC from the literal pico-top all the way down to the bottom. -no hindsight -no flip-flopping -clear and concise reasoning provided Initial Call: What Actually Happened: At a very clear inflection point

Hello everyone, Apologize for not posting recently; I have been on vacation in the south of France. Wasn't expecting too much to occur in crypto during Q2, and sure enough staying away + not trading this trash PA was the right call. This post below is still as applicable as

RRP back to nearly 700B!! We haven't seen it this high since January. Massive liquidity drain occurring to end Q2, but I suspect we could see this reverse quite quickly as we head into Q3.

NOW do you guys see why I stepped away and enjoyed my summer while your favourite influencer got chopped to pieces and roundtripped every position!? If you don't understand what's going on, read my post below (2024 thesis). Sure I got some things wrong (mainly price targets,