2/25 This is a follow-up thread to my earlier post about Russia and Ukraine in February this year.

3/25 At the outset, it is crystal clear that Russia will have a successful offensive and decisively defeat Ukraine during this period. As predicted in February 2022, the only option for Ukraine is to negotiate directly with Russia.

4/25 Russia appears to be preparing for the perfect offensive. This will be mechanical & precise in execution (after some initial issues). As predicted in March 2023, the offensive will be launched between late June and August 2023. This will be the decisive phase of the SMO.

5/25 The Russian offensive will come when the mud is perfectly and unmistakably dry. The attack is likely to begin with a savage air assault using land-based, aerospace and naval forces. The ferocity of the attack will likely result in US readiness being elevated to DEFCON3.

6/25 This will be a battle of air superiority where land forces play a supporting role. The Russian armed forces will now likely use the 'O' or 'F' motif to mark their units for the upcoming Summer offensive.

7/25 Russia must plan for a long and tiring offensive that stretches into early 2024. Military victory does not come easily for anyone. Patience and perseverance are key. Troop losses are also a natural consequence of the war. They must prepare for this.

8/25 As expected, artillery shells will continue to play a decisive role in this war. Russia will painstakingly and tirelessly produce the shells required for the offensive. This will make all the difference. Now, thermobaric weapons will also be used extensively.

9/25 The Wagner PMC group led by the honorable Prigozhin has set the foundation for the offensive but they cannot complete this Special Military Operation for Russia. It is the Russian army's turn now and they will take this to the finish line.

10/25 Ukraine is firmly supported by the honorable US Pentagon and Five Eyes who appear to be in indirect conflict with Russia. Given the successful Russian offensive, we can expect the honorable US Pentagon to intervene more directly using air assets.

11/25 It appears that the German Leopard tanks will run into issues. The delivery might be delayed & they are unlikely to deliver a decisive impact on the battlefield. The entire experience is likely to be frustrating for the Ukrainian army and it will slow them down to a crawl.

12/25 Amphibious assaults on Crimea are highly likely & could create uncomfortable setbacks for Russia. The goal will be to occupy slivers of prestigious territory to embarrass & demoralize Russia since a direct battle cannot be won. The defense must be strong & impenetrable.