Economic forecasters misjudged 2023. In 2024, it seems forecasters may be missing the mark again. #G30 member Mohamed A. El-Erian talks about why forecasters have struggled and what ultimately will determine this year's economic performance.

project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-…

The Varsity interview with Mike Spence and Reid Lidow, two wonderful co-authors.

varsity.co.uk/interviews/274…

#Economy #cambridge #permacrisis #econtwitter

Some thoughts on the challenges facing those forecasting an inherently uncertain global economy experiencing major structural transitions, both domestically and internationally.
 
project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-…

Project Syndicate #economy #markets #EconTwitter

From the Financial Times column by Martin Wolf, 'What we must still learn about the great #inflation disaster: Past and present policymakers should ask more searching questions about the causes and impact of the price surge.'
#economy #markets #econtwitter

While the local media is reporting fx intervention, the Japanese authorities are yet to confirm.
Pending such confirmation, including the amount, it is notable that the exchange rate snapback has currently not extended beyond 155 on a low liquidity day due to a local holiday.…

155-160 per US dollar: That’s the range for the Yen so far today in what has been a wild trading session that is fueling talk on fx intervention (not confirmed by the authorities, at least as yet).

#economy #markets #currency #Japan #econtwitter

The @wsj is right on this: “Even if the Fed cuts, the days of ultralow rates are over.”
Also, we are yet to deal fully with the consequences of the over-indebtedness and resource misallocations encouraged by the protracted period of ultra-loose monetary policy.
#economy …

From the Bloomberg article, “Fed Rate-Cut Debate Shifts From When Toward If on Inflation Data:”

Fed Chair “Powell has kept the committee united in its rate path, with no dissents in nearly two years, but there are some signs of strains. Until recently, Powell had sounded dovish…

Some thoughts on the challenges facing those forecasting an inherently uncertain global economy experiencing major structural transitions, both domestically and internationally.
 
project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-…

Project Syndicate #economy #markets #EconTwitter

“As the US reported the latest in a string of poor #inflation figures, markets reined in their forecasts for rate cuts by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, as well as by the Fed itself.”

As captured by this Financial Times quote, the markets’ repricing of central bank cuts…

An interesting week ahead for the global #economy and #markets , including (but not limited to)…
The release of the US monthly #jobs report, Eurozone inflation and GDP, and China’s #PMI ’s; and
A 2-day policy meeting at the #FederalReserve .
By the end of the week, we should…

The difficulties facing economic and market forecasters are complicated by two broader phenomena that could last for years to come, cautions Mohamed A. El-Erian. bit.ly/3QlNef4

With globalization giving way to fragmentation, we will continue to see a greater divergence in outcomes between and within countries, writes Mohamed A. El-Erian. bit.ly/3QlNef4

.Mohamed A. El-Erian sees three issues as key to deciphering what 2024-25 will look like for the US economy: the Federal Reserve, low-income consumers, and the effects of new technologies on economic, social, and political life. bit.ly/3QlNef4

. #growth #economy IMF The Economist Bloomberg Economics #divergence #EconTwitter

This week’s #markets were supposed to be mainly about earnings, with macro taking more of a back seat ahead of next week’s US #jobs data, the #FederalReserve meeting, #China ’s PMI, etc (more on this in the weekly look ahead that I will post later).
Earnings did have a notable…

From today’s Financial Times.

#economy #inflation #EconTwitter

Looking forward to the #FederalReserve 's policy meeting next week:
Not just the recent elevated readings of actual #inflation will make officials a little uncomfortable about the dovish December pivot.
Forward expectations have also moved up. At 3.2% for the next year,…

With a further 1% depreciation today, the #Yen is now trading with a 157 handle against the dollar, increasing pressures — more domestic than external — to intervene.
The risk for #Japan is that such intervention could prove ineffective without accelerating the normalization of…

According to the just-released data, March headline and core PCE #inflation are slightly higher than the consensus forecasts (2.7 vs. 2.6 and 2.8 vs 2.7).
Having said that, the miss is smaller than yesterday, and the monthly readings are in line.
Meanwhile, personal spending rose…