Now that the monetary inflation rate of #Bitcoin has dropped below #Gold , it will be interesting to see if its market cap will exceed gold according to the stock to flow thesis.

In my view BTC will lag its S2F valuation by 5-10 years, the world simply doesn't move quickly.

Some people have interpreted this tweet as if S2F model no longer works or that I capitulated on S2F model .. but that is not correct, of course.
On the contrary, I tried to explain what S2F is, the jump from commodity to monetary asset, and the coming battle between gold, RE and

Supply (flow) is now irrelevant.

It's ALL about stock!

Bitcoin managed to increase stock WITHOUT crashing price (indeed, while increasing market cap beyond $ 1T). Not many assets have reached 'monetary' status (high S2F + high value), only gold, real estate, and now bitcoin.

Happy bitcoin halving! (stock-to-flow doubling):
- in the 6 months before the halving, insiders frontrun it: price 2x
- in the 6 months after the halving, miner revenue adjusts: price 2x
- 6-18m after the halving, the rest of the market rushes to get a piece of the pie: price 4x

What if an investor with unlimited capital announced a program to acquire 450 $BTC daily at the market price for the next four years and hold the asset forever? What if they increased their purchases to 675 BTC daily in 2028, and to 787.5 BTC daily in 2032? #BitcoinHalving .

Funny how people like Peter Schiff Paul Krugman & Jamie Dimon think bitcoin is a bubble and pyramid scheme, while simultaneously the largest asset managers like Fidelity & BlackRock embrace bitcoin's monetary use case, and DoD Jason Lowery and others explore military use cases:

60 million millionaires in the world, and only 21 million bitcoin..

IMO this bitcoin halving will NOT be different:
- All bitcoin price increase will again be around the halving
- Buying 6m before the halving and selling 18m after the halving (green line) will outperform buy&hold
- BTC > $100k in 2024
- BTC top > $300k in 2025

Bitcoin needs high volatility, to shake out fakers.
Hodlers don't mind, but larpers are scared out by casual -10% dips. Bitcoin is not for everyone. Embrace the volatility.

In the last bull market in 2021, I only had the rough directional S2F model and missed the top.

In this bull market, I also have the new market cycle model. It already helped me correctly call the bottom. Hopefully, it will also help me to detect the top: when red turns yellow.

I am still using this 2019 $55k S2F formula (btc=0.4*s2f^3), nothing has changed.

Some people use the $100k S2F variant (using only 4 pre-2012-halving data points) that was specifically made to argue that it doesn't matter that there are only a few halvings.

There is also a

Hayek 1984: 'While governments can stop people from issuing money, they can hardly stop them from opening accounts in something. So I think we can forget about existing money and existing banks, and gradually open a system of accounts which will displace the government money.'

We haven't even started (color = RSI🟠)
m.youtube.com/watch?v=LUiPYy…

Bitcoin, diminishing or exponential returns, that is the question

Dear @Xeng Elon Musk Safety Linda Yaccarino

Please include this request in the purge project for spam/bot/scam accounts.

Here are 20k active impersonators, regarding ~700 accounts being impersonated.
benemortasia.com/impersonators?…

Almost all accounts are Finance or Crypto related

To be clear: Craig Wright (BSV fork) and Roger Ver (Bch fork) are no friends of bitcoin (BTC). They are enemies of bitcoin that forked their own shitcoin (BSV and BCH) years ago and tried to kill bitcoin. Markets decided to devalue BSV and BCH years ago. They are irrelevant.

Very, very important article!

The biggest misconception with regard to gold – High stock-to-flow ratio is the most important characteristic of gold vongreyerz.gold/the-biggest-mi…

ht RobertBlumen

How can I improve ~7% click through rate (CTR) on my YouTube video thumbnails (2-3 million impressions per video)?🙏
m.youtube.com/@PlanB_Bitcoin…

Controversial confession.

I for one am extremely grateful for PlanB’s stock to flow model.

I would not have fallen down the rabbit hole as hard and as quickly as I did if it hadn’t been for his stock to flow model.