It is a tribute to the coherence of the Conservatives’ election strategy that their post-locals line to take is “actually Labour are not on course for a landslide” and their proposed squeeze message for the general election is “oh no they’re going to get a landslide stop them”.

And also - and I do think this is an underemphasised point - no plan.

If Tory MPs don’t want Rishi Sunak to be Prime Minister any more they should get him to call an election.

The idea that you’d rebel or not rebel on the basis of a few hundred votes either way is just not serious. It makes no difference at all to the fundamentals you’re making the decision on.

Five stars. Top marks. No notes. Heroic.

Losing the West Mids gives Con MPs anxiety, but losing North Yorkshire doesn't? You are not serious people.

Looks like it’s time to re-up my post about the Tories’ “London is a crime-ridden hell-hole” campaign: dividinglines.substack.com/p/incumbency-b…

The good thing about Susan Hall making the mayoral election a referendum on ULEZ expansion is that we now have the result of the referendum on ULEZ expansion.

Tom Hamilton Wasn’t enough for them in East Mids

After Uxbridge the Tories pivoted to being anti-ULEZ so I guess after all this they just pivot to… being called Ben?

To be fair, yesterday’s turnout figures were strong evidence that we couldn’t rule out a Susan Hall win until the votes were counted: it was absolutely possible in principle that loads of the uncounted votes were for her even if, in actual fact, most of them weren’t.

What a line, though

It can be true at the same time that Green performance is much more impressive than Reform performance, and that Reform is having a bigger impact on the behaviour of any major party than the Greens are. Coverage is influenced by knowledge of who is panicking, not just numbers.

It's a big sigh of relief in No10 because it's very helpful for internal party management. The downside is that that's all it is.