The end of semiconductor-led deflation. 'for linear improvement in model performance...you need exponentially more data. At some point, chasing model gains through scale only becomes economically infeasible. Diminishing marginal returns strikes again.'
From Exponential View 🔮

The end of semiconductor-led deflation. TSMC plans to charge customers more for chips made outside Taiwan ft.com/content/ef8e2d… via @ft Kathrin Hille

Interest rate purgatory continues. Fed, BOE and RBNZ all facing hawkish news this week. But the ECB set to cut in June. Australian employment out today next to throw up information.

In today's #5in5withANZ : Inflation concerns in UK and NZ; #Oil down 3%; European Central Bank seen on track for June cut; Four reasons why the #USDollar is so strong. FYI @anz_research Richard Yetsenga 叶森 🇦🇺 🇭🇰 🇹🇭 🇳🇱 youtube.com/watch?v=fz2QQl…

We’ve passed the end of semiconductor related deflation. AI data centre frenzy risks power blackouts theaustralian.com.au/business/renew…

In today's #5in5withANZ podcast out at 6am daily Syd/Melb time: US yields up on strong US retail sales; Oil down on Mideast relief; Metals ban having an impact, via Daniel Hynes & ANZ_Research's Richard Yetsenga 叶森 🇦🇺 🇭🇰 🇹🇭 🇳🇱 on Japan's quiet achievements post 'shrinkanomics'. youtube.com/watch?v=zFCUWP…

Geopolitics has taken the lead over the weekend, but not so much that the data can be ignored. There is plenty to focus on this week either way. Listen to #5in5 .

Twitter does propagate poor information. But then there is this…

This is a fantastic point that is enormously under-considered. Urbanisation as a driver of economic growth in China is a very different prospect when the total population is falling. It is closer to a zero sum game.

US CPI was hawkish, the BOC had a hint of dovishness and the RBNZ was aggressively neutral. #5in5 Welcome to the mid-cycle slowdown; #InterestRatePurgatory .

Election year 2024 continues to progress, with elections in Korea and India coming up.
bluenotes.anz.com/posts/2024/apr…

Another one.
EU launches probe into Chinese wind turbine companies ft.com/content/ee5dfc… via @ft

US CPI critical tonight to keep first-half easing hopes alive. July is our pick. #5in5

I love the water, but this just looks foolhardy. Plus, they swim like Zohan.