For fans of WRESBAL this is an important week where WRESBAL Plus is showing the massive correction that is likely to show up in the weekly data print tomorrow.

what will be interesting to see is if algos and traders who don't have WRESBAL Plus will react to the Fed print.

Probably going to see some central bank emergency intervention soon to keep the yield curve inverted.

10y - 2y

When $DXY breaks above the 107.25 area of resistance, it will probably be a quick ride up to 117

DEDO $SPX bounced right at the previous all time high in 2020.

It looks as though it could act as support, but this is already a massive extension from liquidity.

WRESBAL Plus signaling a breakdown in liquidity.

Hard to say if the top is in at this point, but this liquidity chart rising has been a predictor of increasing oil prices and inflation.

In an election year I can't imagine the incumbent wants gas prices to go higher.

TGA rising, and so is RRP. If this continues asset prices will have trouble moving higher.

In 2022 when the tax collection dump came, there were some big wicks to the upside as $SPX put in 7 red candles in a row.

Then there was one green, and another 3 red in a row.

$AMZN double top was crazy in the Dotcom crash.

$USOIL is not sensitive to liquidity in the moment. it takes its sweet time to react.

About 180 days is what I've seen in recent years.

A dip is not necessarily the start of a down trend. Liquidity is saying this is the start of an epic and long rally.

For those who don't remember my $TSLQ robot chart, I feel like it's worth a throwback.

$TSLA

Can we add 500 more and make it 10k?

$TSLA

$EURUSD seems to lead WRESBAL. This is why currencies are sometimes seen as more important than any other liquidity metric (and are a major component of CBDET)

So say the ECB cuts rates, and the Fed doesn't. do we care?

$BTC wants to be at 40k

Anyone betting on staying inverted another 2 years?

10y - 2y

$BTC tends to top when the MACD monthly histogram for RRP+TGA troughs.

this is yet another chart that shows #BTC is sensitive to liquidity metrics.

Based on recent momentum shifts it's possible the top is in, but RRP+TGA has plenty more in it.

Hope everyone is having a good weekend.

While markets are closed consider checking out my podcast episode on Work in Progress with host James Schneider.

We mostly discuss my book and #BTC

Enjoy!

youtu.be/OmkHK5-Yxac?si…

#recession ... #GFC2 EDITION

From Asian Financial Crisis (1998) to Global Financial Crisis (2008) to ??? (2024). #fx #forex $EUR 💶 vs $JPY 💴 $EURJPY 😬

The hard part is knowing when the bull run is over. you always buy the dip until that doesn't work, then you buy the dippier dip and that also doesn't work.

What's hilarious is this headline about Turmoil has trained you to believe that it's always time to buy the 'dip'

Anyone betting against the $DXY is betting against this chart.

$USDEUR

Dejavu $EURUSD