Andrew Phillips (@ajkphillips) 's Twitter Profile
Andrew Phillips

@ajkphillips

Applied mathematician obsessed with F1. Author of f1metrics. My other areas of expertise are sleep and circadian rhythms. All views are my own.

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linkhttps://f1metrics.wordpress.com/ calendar_today22-02-2015 22:41:52

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My 2019 preseason analysis and predictions! f1metrics.wordpress.com/2019/03/11/201… Summary of the estimated term performances from testing and the ranges of uncertainty below.

My 2019 preseason analysis and predictions!

f1metrics.wordpress.com/2019/03/11/201…

Summary of the estimated term performances from testing and the ranges of uncertainty below.
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In Melbourne, Mercedes vs. Ferrari differed from testing. Using my estimates from testing, we can compare hypotheses: 1) Mercedes overperformed (sandbagging in testing?) vs. 2) Ferrari underperformed (poor set-up, etc.). Best quali times for all teams indicate more 1) than 2).

In Melbourne, Mercedes vs. Ferrari differed from testing. Using my estimates from testing, we can compare hypotheses: 1) Mercedes overperformed (sandbagging in testing?) vs. 2) Ferrari underperformed (poor set-up, etc.). Best quali times for all teams indicate more 1) than 2).
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Map of proposed timezone changes. The entire USA is trying to wake up earlier (and sleep less!) worldtimezone.com/dst_news/dst_n…

Map of proposed timezone changes. The entire USA is trying to wake up earlier (and sleep less!) worldtimezone.com/dst_news/dst_n…
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By my count, Germany 2019 is the first rain-affected Grand Prix to not be won by Lewis Hamilton since Hungary 2014. A stunning rain reign of almost 5 years!

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Where is Gasly going wrong? Excluding first laps and SC, I calculate he is averaging 1.1% slower than VER on race laps, more than double the quali gap (0.47%). Largely due to traffic, but also about consistency. VER averages 0.25s diff between consecutive laps; GAS averages 0.36s

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Given Vettel's reputation these days in wheel-to-wheel combat, it's interesting to note that he holds the longest run of no crash-related DNFs: 105 races (Turkey 2010 to Mexico 2015), encompassing 45% of his starts. RIC is next closest on 75. HAM is on 69 races since Spain 2016.

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What if Stefan Bellof had survived to race for Ferrari in 1986? What if Hakkinen had made a comeback for McLaren in 2007? Here's Part 3 of my Historical Hypothetical series: f1metrics.wordpress.com/2019/08/25/his…

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At the age that Verstappen debuted in F1: - Jim Clark was working on the family farm. Wouldn't start amateur racing for 3 years. - Jackie Stewart was still a competitive shooter. - Damon Hill would start motorcycle racing 4 years later. Cars another 2 years beyond that.

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I have updated the f1metrics model to account for customer cars and to provide more robust rankings. A quick review of the model's development: f1metrics.wordpress.com/2019/09/10/a-n… A new all-time driver ranking list is in the works, replacing the 2014 ranking list. It's looking interesting!😉

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Time for a new set of f1metrics historical hypotheticals. This time it's a French driver edition! Alesi, Behra, and Cevert. f1metrics.wordpress.com/2019/09/26/his… From the article, see how Francois Cevert's performance in qualifying closed on Jackie Stewart's over time:

Time for a new set of f1metrics historical hypotheticals. This time it's a French driver edition! Alesi, Behra, and Cevert.

f1metrics.wordpress.com/2019/09/26/his…

From the article, see how Francois Cevert's performance in qualifying closed on Jackie Stewart's over time:
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Final part of my historical hypothetical series. What if Gilles Villeneuve survived? Plus stacks of Michael Schumacher hypothetical scenarios. Hope you enjoy! It's been fun to write. f1metrics.wordpress.com/2019/10/03/his…

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Nico Hulkenberg is just quietly beating Daniel Ricciardo 7-6 in races without mechanical failures. Tied 34-34 in points. Ricciardo might have extra pace, but not translating it. Won't get a second season against Hulkenberg to prove it wasn't representative...

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The f1metrics top 100 is nearly complete and I'll release it in the week after the Brazilian GP! The new model has identified seven drivers who are within statistical uncertainty of the #1 ranked driver. Any early guesses who they will be?

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Keeping in the spirit of 2020, I have posted my very belated analysis of the 2019 F1 season. For those who can still remember the season, here's something to start arguing about: f1metrics.wordpress.com/2020/09/23/201…

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I really enjoyed chatting about my F1 analysis work on the Melius Performance podcast today. We chatted about my background, performance factors, Lewis Hamilton, and future plans for the blog. Feeling inspired about some future posts!