In terms of revealed issue importance, the anti-Israel protestors on college campuses do not represent the overall population of young voters. Polls show most young people care more about mainstream issues, such as inflation, gun violence and the costs of health care and housing.

i’m sorry to say this, but this is not how the statistics of polling works

Wait until Robert F Kennedy Jr finds out about the sample size of the 1936 Literary Digest poll

They're not really 'priors' it's just literally voter file data matched to polls and election results. I don't get what you think he's doing? Making stuff up?

good thread (not just cause it's nice to me, but that's definitely part of the appeal)

Important points here. Related: AFAIK our 538 polling aggregate is the only one that methodologically adheres to the Total Survey Error Framework — namely bcuz we explicitly encode non-sampling error that dynamically adjusts to the empirical noise in polls projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…

soon

programming challenge of the week... not as easy as it sounds to create an election model that works with a flexible number of electoral jurisdictions over time

now updated with the new CNN and CBS polls projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…

don’t narrate, aggregate

Trump and Biden are tied in national presidential polls, according to 538’s just-published averages. Trump was at +2 in early March — so there has been a sizable shift towards the president over the last eight weeks.

I believe this is the first time 538 has published presidential general election polling averages with uncertainty intervals derived from the posterior predictive interval. Very proud of the team for making this possible