Interesting: 'Indonesia's defence establishment has not fully shed its anti-communist outlook ... China’s actions in the South China Sea add more barriers... no strong strategic.. or operational consideration that would compel defence policymakers in Jakarta to turn to China'

Indian restaurants in Britain now employ more people than the steel, coal and shipbuilding industries combined.

'The days of Europe buying its energy from Russia, outsourcing its businesses to China, and relying on the United States for its security are over.'

Useful analysis from Mark Leonard on the big Macron sorbonne speech. Let's hope Macron is right.

ecfr.eu/article/the-ma…

Scholzs approach of quiet, sophisticated engagement in Beijing paying exactly the kind of dividends one might have predicted 🤷‍♂️

Another striking chart from Bloomberg on the economic impact of “full-blown” Trump scenario, meaning:
— big US tax cuts
— higher US spending
— 60% tariffs on China + 10% on others
— China devalues by 10%
— Immigration comes down by 50%.

TLDR — not pretty.

Striking chart from Bloomberg. 'Trump 1.0 really did have a massive impact on the share of exports that the US derived from China.'

“Those measures could include the deployment of cold storage facilities to the Philippines for agricultural products that China might boycott.”

'We expect the Commission to impose duties in the 15-30 per cent range. But... some China-based producers will still be able to generate comfortable profit margins on the cars they export to Europe because of the substantial cost advantages they enjoy,” the report says.

Ukraine has made its European choice and we have made our Ukrainian choice.

The decisions we will take in the next months will decide who wins the future of Europe.

So together, let us stay united. Let us stay strong with 🇺🇦. And let us stay ambitious on enlargement and reform.

Latest Indian election predictions: Modi to increase BJP seats from 303 to 323.

Thinking through recent democratic leaders who have won 3 consecutive terms, from Kohl & Merkel to Blair * Trudeau. Can't think of any who has won more seats with each election. Anyone?

Did not know this. 🤯

I have received a booklet with the candidates for Mayor of London. I shall here rate the design of the 2-page manifestos they have provided:

This viral post gets a lot wrong.

1) This post is false — MFA DG Yang Tao saw Blinken off.

2) The treatment was reciprocal — when FM Wang Yi visited in October 2023, DAS Mark Lambert saw him off.

3) The debate is silly — Blinken had a bilateral meeting with President Xi.

10% of the Tory vote has *died* since the last election!

'growth targeting has forced more incremental growth into the new industries where China’s vast scale, modern technologies, & cost competitiveness provide enormous comparative advantage. ...the US will never be able to outcompete its rivals in many of the new modern industries.'