Reeves has run out of fiscal headroom, reckons Capital Economics

Two killer charts from Capital Economics The first shows the £ has fallen in value against a range of international currencies in recent weeks but only to level it was at when Labour won the election. The fall precipitated by the “Truss” MiniBudget was on totally different scale…

Central banks will continue to cut #rates in 2025, but some will cut more aggressively than others. Learn more about the policy outlook across the major economies and how it will shape the global financial landscape in our latest Global Economic Outlook. shorturl.at/lFQju

#Geopolitics will remain in focus throughout 2025, and the economic effects will play out gradually under a long-run theme of global fracturing. Discover how these dynamics will shape the economic future in our latest Q1 Global Economic Outlook. shorturl.at/Gyph6

From ⁦Capital Economics⁩: “Data from the ILO show that manufacturing wage costs are 10 times lower in Mexico, 15 times lower in Vietnam and 20 times lower in India than they are in the US”

Will mild stagflation define the US economy under Trump’s policies? We expect GDP growth to run at 1.5% annualised & inflation to rise to 3% in the coming 12 months as the new administration's tariffs and immigration curbs reshape the policy landscape. shorturl.at/7dT7C

Will Congress extend Trump’s tax cuts – and what would that mean for the US economy? Read our latest US Economic Outlook: shorturl.at/fHrTb #taxes #USeconomy

Another big year for the #SP500? Find out why we think earnings & valuations will drive another year of double-digit percentage gains. Read this in-depth report to find out what’s driving our forecast and how it can impact your #investment strategy: shorturl.at/YPugv

From AI demand to rising bond yields & geopolitical tensions, our latest report examines key risks that could limit US equity gains. Read this report from our award-winning Markets team to learn how much of a threat these risks pose to the market’s upside. shorturl.at/vnHgj

What happens when the S&P 500's valuation hits dotcom bubble-levels? With the US benchmark’s PE ratio closing in on its dotcom bubble peak, our analysis explores how much longer share prices can rise. Find out what lies ahead with this S&P 500 outlook. shorturl.at/GYZhG

Our Q1 Outlook explores where the #USeconomy is heading as Donald Trump returns to office with pledges to reshape trade, immigration, taxes, and government. Key topics in our report include. Read the report: bit.ly/3EapCHg

Will big-tech continue to drive the S&P 500 higher? Our new analysis explains how corporate earnings growth will lead to another bumper year for US equities. Get the report now from our award-winning Markets team to learn more: shorturl.at/c98bm

From a big drop in residential supply to stagnant office demand, the 2025 outlook for US commercial real estate poses challenges & opportunities for investors. Watch our on-demand briefing to find out how the market will develop this year. shorturl.at/UTh74 #usproperty

Will our Markets team win most accurate stock index forecaster in 2025? Our S&P 500 forecasts are just one reason why LSEG named us number 1 in the last two years. Get our report to find out whether the #SP500 will continue hitting record highs in 2025: shorturl.at/hRYVz

Discover how the rates outlook, moderating growth, and the question of asset distress could influence US commercial property valuations this year. Watch our on-demand client briefing for the analysis you need. shorturl.at/6PS6h #USproperty #CommercialProperty

What’s really happening in #China’s economy? Official GDP data doesn't tell the full story. Our China Activity Proxy tracks economic activity independently, revealing weaker growth, sluggish demand & sector slowdowns. Read our latest report to learn more: shorturl.at/XCg8y

The US commercial real estate market may have bottomed, but we’re not expecting a strong recovery this year. Watch our recent online client briefing to find out more about our non-consensus forecasts for cap rates and returns in 2025. shorturl.at/0f6Cd #USproperty

#China’s growth isn’t as strong as the headlines suggest. Our China Activity Proxy shows weaker real growth & challenges: - Growth likely missed 5.0% target - Fiscal stimulus gave a short boost—but won’t last - Trade barriers & weak demand could hit 2025 shorturl.at/wxPpq

Why did markets welcome the latest US #tariffs? Jonas Goltermann breaks down Trump’s plan & its impact on investors. With #Germany voting on 23 Feb, Andrew Kenningham & Elias Hilmer explore its economic future in a world shaped by Trump, Putin & Xi: shorturl.at/nffhn

Capital Economics has been recognised by FocusEconomics as the world’s most accurate forecaster of commodities prices. In this year’s Analyst Forecast Awards, Capital Economics received the highest number of awards and first-place rankings for commodities: shorturl.at/0EiXb