French 10-year bond yields are higher than Italy's for the first time in the history of the euro area Credit to Greg Ritchie bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

French borrowing costs top Italy’s in historic market shift bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via Greg Ritchie

The G7 and the EU are weighing new ways to chip away at China’s rare earths dominance. Tariffs or taxes on Chinese exports are on the table along with price floors and subsidies to jump start mining and processing capacity outside Beijing’s reach. The thinking is that by

The Fed’s job just got a little harder. Initial jobless claims fell back to 218k, close to year-to-date lows. At the same time, Q2 GDP was revised up again to 3.8%. Stable labor, hot growth, sticky inflation. Cuts are getting harder to justify. (a thread)

Good Morning from Germany, where the Auto Industry to eliminate nearly 100,000 jobs by 2030. Carmakers and their suppliers are struggling w/waning demand, high labor & energy costs & intensifying competition from Chinese manufacturers. Overall, Germany’s auto sector has lost

As I showed yesterday, business investment in software & tech is adding more to GDP growth than ever before. But here’s the catch: that capex contribution only captures the domestic slice of the boom. Imports of Tech capex - up 90% in 2 years - tell the rest of the story.

Will there be a government shutdown? Prediction markets think so... (📈 on WSL PREDICT<GO>)

Core PCE inflation was 2.9% in August, up from a recent low of 2.6% in April and little changed from one year earlier. Core prices rose 0.23% in August, or a 2.8% annualized rate. The 3-month annualized rate was 2.9%. The 6-month annualized rate was 2.5%.

Bettors are giving an 83% chance of a shutdown, suggesting it will occur at midnight on Wednesday, September 30. The biggest FINANCIAL MARKET impact from a shutdown is the suspension of government-released economic data. In the current case, no economic data will be released

Job growth in industries more reliant on unauthorized immigrants has been flat this year. These industries include construction, hotels, restaurants, home health care, & others in manufacturing, technology, & services. #PIIECharts More: piie.com/research/piie-…

Q2 GDP Revised Sharply Higher To 3.8%, Best Quarter In Two Years via zerohedge zerohedge.com/markets/q2-gdp…

ECAN PCE SuperCore Drivers: Financial Services costs (i.e. stock market and associated services) Food services and transportation via zerohedge zerohedge.com/markets/feds-f…

With the budget deadline looming, Polymarket & Kalshi prediction markets on WSL PREDICT put the odds of a US gov’t shutdown above 70%, as Trump meets with top Democrats today.

Seasonality of weekly US soybean exports to China 🌱🇨🇳 2025: white line 2024: blue line 2018 (trade war): dotted orange Range (2015–24): gray band (G //KEY:6867188:3162<GO>)

What to expect when the US government shuts down, from Social Security to air travel via Gregory Korte Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Historic US Government Shutdowns vs the S&P 500 (updated)

Prediction markets put shutdown odds at over 80% this year. Likelihood by length: (via Kalshi & WSL PREDICT) 3d: 68% 5d: 60% 10d: 36% 35d: 11% Markets expect a shutdown, but not a long one.

Shutdown odds approach 100% in prediction markets ahead of the midnight deadline — though it’s surprising they aren’t already higher. The nature of politics.

As we approach a potential government shutdown, here’s a handy shortcut on Bloomberg Terminal to view a sampling of alternative and private economic data: WSL ALTE<GO>. Feel free to MSG/IB me with additional suggestions!