Trump II risks nailed by Edward Luce here.
Ireland needs to prepare as it did for Brexit, and perhaps even more given far bigger trade and investment links with the US.
An extra risk for Ireland is that the UK could have better access to US market.
ft.com/content/60df8c…

Neoliberalism in inaction…

Another poll today is in line with trend over past six months.

What people told pollsters weeks out from GE2020 and recent referendums was very different from how they ended up voting.

Value of polling increasingly seems to be on issues rather than future voting intentions.

2/3 Large health overruns, which typically materialise later in the year, are already apparent. At the end of April, the health overrun of €0.6 billion is larger than all pre-pandemic overruns. The overrun so far this year is on pace to surpass the previous 2023 record overrun.

Trump II risks nailed by Edward Luce here.
Ireland needs to prepare as it did for Brexit, and perhaps even more given far bigger trade and investment links with the US.
An extra risk for Ireland is that the UK could have better access to US market.
ft.com/content/60df8c…

The European economy has suffered multiple shocks over the past two years yet there has never been a period on record when unemployment has been as low AND as stable.
Stand to be corrected, but don't think anyone anywhere predicted such an outcome.
Unpredictable times.

Sir Ivan Rogers joined me last week at IIEA to discuss Britain's future relations with its neighbours and the world (recorded before the Ireland-UK asylum fiasco blew up).

Soundcloud: soundcloud.com/iiea/iiea-insi…
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/5WK9dl…
YT Music: music.youtube.com/watch?v=gytubG…

Another issue to watch on the economic performance of Europe's south is international imbalances. Greece is an exception in running large deficits on its international balance of payments current account. Not alarming in a currency union, but a sign of uncompetitiveness.

I have always been convinced that the West couldn’t accept a fall of Ukraine. It would be such a blow to its prestige that it would be obliged to intervene to prevent it : Kyiv and Odesa would be the litmus test.

Absolutely essential reading on southern Europe economies outgrowing rest of Europe recently. Hopefully solid growth continues, but if the conclusion is correct it will raise huge questions about common EU debt and spending.

With inflation coming down faster than wage growth and a tight labour market, key for growth is what households do with real income gains: (1) spend them, boosting the economy (2) save them, building buffers. So far, they opted for (2) as saving rates remain higher than in 2010s.

Sir Ivan Rogers joined me last week at IIEA to discuss Britain's future relations with its neighbours and the world (recorded before the Ireland-UK asylum fiasco blew up).

Soundcloud: soundcloud.com/iiea/iiea-insi…
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/5WK9dl…
YT Music: music.youtube.com/watch?v=gytubG…

Malta has overtaken both its nearest neighbour (Italy) and former coloniser (UK) in GDP per person. It has arguably been the biggest success among the 2004 EU accession wave (and the only country in which the main opposition party was against joining).

Long hours culture differs a lot across Europe. Here's the share of people who work longer than 49 hours a week from today's EU_Eurostat release.

On the 20th anniversary of the EU's biggest enlargement, economic convergence of the 10 countries that joined then has been impressive.

Of the big six west European economies, Poland's progress has stellar.

Ireland's jobless rate was 4.4% in April. Largely unchanged over 24 months.

Remarkable stability in this number considering there has been so much turmoil and change in some sectors, in migration, in monetary policy, in geopolitics, etc, etc...

Sooner or later…

EU-China trade conflict coming soon!
👉Anyone want to bet that we’ll see managed trade solutions?
➡️VERs, price undertakings, etc

It very much looks as if large numbers of people are claiming asylum in the Republic via NI AND there has been little Rwanda effect to date.
With a Rwanda effect likely coming in the future, Dublin seems to have 2 choices: prepare for more arrivals or match UK’s Rwanda plan.

Europe has a lot of derisking to do. Security of supply will come at a price, but it is a price worth paying.