So, is there really a hot model problem? Or was CMIP6 right all along? nature.com/articles/d4158…

Dr Stuart StopFossilSubsidies Capstick Climate Change Committee Dr James Richardson Our earlier advice is still current. UK oil and gas consumption needs to fall by over 80% to meet UK targets. This and COP decision makes further licensing inconsistent with climate goals theccc.org.uk/publication/le…

Oooh, some people on here gonna hate this 🤣
Aerosols have offset only 0.2°C of historical warming, according to this new preprint: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023…
Mostly CMIP6 evidence based using GMST from observations. IPCC author.

'Equinor banned from repeating green claims' - the regulator took issue with the oil giant's suggestion that 'wind farms, oil & gas, & carbon capture play a balanced role in its energy mix, when most of the company’s revenues still come from oil and gas'

ft.com/content/9862ca…

Almost 15 years ago, in 2009, we published a report on the carbon budget for the German government - as their official scientific advisory body, WBGU.
I made this graph for the report, with the carbon budget for the 2 °C guardrail.
They knew.
Report: wbgu.de/en/publication…

Got it: no EOFs on the T-rex. I am in awe of these guys getting this plot published in PNAS. pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn…

historically constrained temperature attribution

Code: github.com/chrisroadmap/t…

Best estimate aerosol cooling is -0.6°C. Note that large values not ruled out, but edge of distribution

(uncertainty on natural forcing contribution is likely too tight, but that's not the focus)

There's still work to do on understanding how aerosol reductions and the current energetic imbalance are going to impact our understanding of warming commitments - but there's reasons to be skeptical of Dr. James Hansen 's initial assessment.

OK Leon Simons, we need to talk about figure 13. Where did you get 1.5°C of cooling from aerosols from? Also, why does this gap keep growing? If total warming is accelerating as the paper claims, the gap should be narrowing in recent years.

'transition away from fossil fuels' - just not yet.

Norway is planning a 10pct increase to 22 billion dollars on oil/gas exploration next year (compare with 0.27 billion to the loss and damage fund).

reuters.com/business/energ…

If you live anywhere other than Scandinavia, November was warmer than average. The days when we needed fancy statistics to detect this stuff are long gone.

#COP28 is a dream outcome for OPEC and the UAE. Positive media coverage, no bite this decade for oil and gas. Perfectly played.

Incremental progress is delivered as the best-case outcome when we know 1.5 would need a revolution, if it's not already gone.
bbc.com/news/science-e…

Now compare to a per-capita carbon budget: Take cumulative CO2 allowances for a 50% chance of staying below a given warming, and distribute equally to all currently living people. China and India still have some way to any of the limits, EU/US are already far above all of them.