As far as I've been able to find, all the schemes for imbalanced data have been an industry hallucination. Neither theory nor good benchmarking find they work. Which leaves just bad benchmarking and people convincing themselves they saw something.

Rare insult

Negative campaigning zielt per definition auf den gegner ab, und jetzt weiß ich auch nicht mehr...

Footage of me trying to install python on a windows machine

Ich habe vor ein paar Tagen diese Grafik kritisiert:
twitter.com/DanBischof/sta…

Nun Grafik reproduziert. Thomas Willi & Tim Allinger haben meinen Code gecheckt. Dabei fiel @thw_c auf, dass die Prozent pro Jahr mehr als 100 sind:

🧵

vielleicht interessant: Christian Endt Julius Tröger

Mit ein paar Einschätzungen von mir zur Lage der #FDP 👇
Diese Optionen hat die FDP tagesschau.de/inland/fdp-koa…

No better start to a Methods conference than reimplementing panel regression in base R because the shitty train wifi wont let you download the package

I told a grad-student co-author 'try to imagine me as the guy from 'Memento' who can't remember anything & needs clues to pick-up the thread on projects' and they said 'I believe you, because you already used that memento analogy'

We are hiring! Postdoc focusing on comparative politics.
👩‍🎓 Responsibilities include: Independent research, student mentorship, and teaching (2 hrs/week).
📍 Basel, Switzerland
🗓️ Starting: September 1, 2024

career2.successfactors.eu/career?company…
University of Basel European Consortium for Political Research

I was bored on the train, so I calculated how every German election since 1953 would have turned out in a US-style electoral system. Parties would win all the electors in a state by relative majority & win the entire election with a majority of electors in an electoral college.🧵

Awesome resource for #PolSci students:
github.com/erikgahner/Pol…

Do we have any sense of political ads on this platform?

Since a few days, I’m getting agressive (every 4./5. tweet) US political ads (all rep or RFKJ). These are the harshest polarizing ads I’ve been seeing and I’m not even voting here. 🤯 Looking for descriptive figures 🤔

Zeit herauszufinden wer eigentlich heutzutage in der zweiten liga spielt...

youtu.be/dFS34ejFo-Y?si…

😭

People seem to assume i like social media 🤔

Had an amazing defense today. I have much to say but for now: thank you to every single person that accompanied me along this way and making me the person that I am today. I am incredibly humbled, happy and relieved.

Sane people: Every paper imaginable with draft lottery data has been written.

Economists: Hold my beer.

(Congrats btw, fascinating paper)