The Indonesian rupiah is facing a very strong dollar today and there is a high risk that instead of being able to cut, BI will not just have to hold rates but hike next week if this trend persists to shore up the IDR.

Guys! Trinh shop is closed for the next two weeks. See you guys second week of May. Until then, be well!!!

Sincerely,

Trinh

Given that Middle East conflict impacts oil prices, we zoom into oil trade balance (Indonesia for example is positive because of coal while oil is negative). Note that ALL Asian countries are negative for oil except Malaysia. Most negative is Thailand as a share of GDP.

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The Indonesian rupiah is facing a very strong dollar today and there is a high risk that instead of being able to cut, BI will not just have to hold rates but hike next week if this trend persists to shore up the IDR.

Is the world on fire? Well, it may not be, according to Brent's reaction to the escalation of the Middle East conflict but zoom out and you will see food & fuel prices rising. And increasingly, metals too.

My TV interview below. Asian FX is weakening against USD, esp the Korean…