The Rams spent more on Braden Fiske than they did on Jared Verse, according to the ESPN, OTC, PFF, Stuart and Baldwin charts*.

*including a 10% discount on the future second, assumed to be pick 48

EDC told us the Ravens calculated it was about a 40% chance that Nate Wiggins would make it them at 30.

I like this quote because I think it shows the general overconfidence in how the draft will shake out. I'm not saying our numbers are the ground truth but as Jamison Hensley points out in the story: we had a 35% chance Wiggins made it to 30.

Just because something would be an…

Re: consensus boards, an analytics staffer told me that because there are now multiple big board aggregators some teams use a consensus of consensus boards.

Good read as always from Bill on NFL Draft trades!

This has been true for awhile but I don't see how the Raiders can justify *not* trading Davante Adams.

They're just running out the clock on an asset that could be turned into resources that could help in the future, when they could actually be a contender.

fun!

lmao

the f1 calendar is cool because it spans beautiful cities, incredible race tracks and the miami dolphins parking lot

Obviously not nothing but in the world of QB trade-ups this is not that aggressive of an offer

The Broncos hired Joey DiCresce as a full-time football data scientist.

He had previously been a football data science intern with the team.

Really dug the questions we got here.

We talked about why Roseman is good at the draft -- it's not for the reason he usually receives praise for! -- the Lions 2024 draft with regard to positional value, and how to think about teams *not* trading down.

What if during pick 9 the Falcons offered to trade Kirk Cousins to the Vikings (and he waived no-trade clause) -- what would the comp have been?

He'd have cost Minnesota $50M/2.

Right that's the thing: I understand why *GMs* want to have a discount rate because of this. But the team's timeline is forever and if you're an owner it's your job to make sure the team is operating that way.

I am increasingly of the opinion that the discount for future picks should be at or near zero.

There is no inflation, interest or expected positive investment returns in draft capital, so there is not a present value argument the way there is with money.

In a no-discount…

This is a good point: when you see these outlier trades, the teams directly ahead also probably (?) got this same offer and deserve judgment for (probably) turning it down.

In this case, extra bad for the Titans since they also reached for Sweat at 38.

Draft recap mailbag with Seth Walder who was wearing a hat that said 'analytics' again. Why the Eagles always get praised, why there isn't a generous Falcons reading and much more.

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