Great speaking with Kirsty Wark on BBC Newsnight this evening about (limited) efforts to tackle the mortgage rate cliff edge in the UK -- there are no easy options. Also sad to hear of increasing reliance on food banks from Charlotte Hill (helping to deliver much-needed support).

Enjoyed speaking on the Today program on BBC Radio 4 at 6:20 this morning about the Bank of England and why it's in the unenviable position of still hiking when other central banks are stopping. You can catch up here: bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0…

The euro’s masters have set the economy for a painful reckoning bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via William Horobin @JMurray804 Maeva Cousin

From Bloomberg Green: A 1.2C increase in global temperatures is already wreaking havoc. Here’s a glimpse of what’s in store for humanity as the planet warms bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-… via @bbgvisualdata

If you're one of the countless people who love semi-structural economic models AND erotic thrillers, Fair Play on Netflix might be just the film for you. If not, try {SHOK<GO>} on the Bloomberg terminal for all your economic scenario analysis needs.

Here's our big look at the #priceofmoney. We show how some of the factors that drove a decades-long drop in borrowing costs may be swinging into reverse and new drivers, like climate change, are coming into play. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

There is a way to move from a gas state to a solid state, bypassing the liquid state. It's called deposition and usually involves crystals. So maybe we'll get @lagarde's liquid phase for ECB rates. Or perhaps we'll get a deposit rate cut as risks crystallize...😉

How far will borrowing costs fall as inflation recedes? For three decades, the natural rate of interest was falling. Now, we think it's going up. See the Bloomberg Originals documentary (based on our original research) here: Bloomberg Economics bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via Bloomberg Economics

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via Bloomberg Economics

The Draghi Report is the talk of town. 🇪🇺 Bloomberg TV has you covered today. Fascinating interview of Jamie Rush by Francine Lacqua!

Changing The Rules: Bloomberg Economics' Pitch To Rachel Reeves omny.fm/shows/bloomber…

A really interesting contribution from Jamie and Dan. Very complementary suggestions with ones made by some of us in a recent Financial Times letter. It’s good to see an active debate on reforming the UK’s fiscal rules to boost investment and growth. Tom Railton Invest in Britain

Yesterday's splash in the Financial Times suggested that UK gilts yields are rising on budget speculation around the fiscal rules. My letter in the FT explains why it's a bit more complicated.... "Reeves has to strike right balance on debt policy" (1/n) ft.com/content/57c999… via @ft

Europe's Missing Trillions youtu.be/LOO41jlHRb8?si… Enjoyed saying a few words for this short documentary created by my talented colleagues at Bloomberg Originals. Europe's got some challenges ahead, but I'm still optimistic about the region's future and capacity for change.

Nice bowl of word salad served up by the Bank of England today. We think there will be a rate cut in Feb.

There's nothing special about UK borrowing costs going up. Britain is deeply integrated in global capital markets and the US is the dominant driver of world interest rates.

Great recent research by my Bloomberg Bloomberg Economics colleagues @TomOrlik Jamie Rush and Martin Ademmer on the new long run fair value of Trsy 10Y. I agree with it. Fwiw, I was expressing a strictly cyclical view. Looking forward, I do expect 10y to inch upward w higher

So the bond market is doubing Musk’s DOGE? In my latest Bloomberg Terminal we plugged some DOGE scenarios into my colleague Jamie Rush’s model, SHOK (BECO MODELS SHOK <go>, which happened to feature in the background of the Netflix movie Fair Play) I have the max disinflationary