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You could turn out to be right IF Kyiv gets over-enthusuastic and reckless after early successes. But that's a matter for their professional military judgement. And it certainly hasn't happened so far. We'll get to judge 'strategic' success in maybe a month or so, not 10 days.

I wouldn't rate that as a 'counter punch under pressure', so much as an early punch when forces moving forward were getting impatient (Monty was anyway). It was a mess from start to finish.... just my own opinion, of course. More on it in 'Great British Commanders', out 30 Sept.

No. I worry about a civil nuclear accident caused by this war, or maybe some deliberate NPP damage, but the prospects of nuclear weapon use are no higher, in my view, than before Russia's 2022 attack. And there has been no preparation for any use of TNFs by the Russians.

It's August and the Georgian Dream fortifies the Central Election Commission physically for the October elections, radiating confidence 🤡

Sadly not. Giving up some land doesn't stop Putin assuming Russia has a historic right to all of it (see his decade of words/writing). A heavily armed truce is the best we hope for, while Russia adjusts its security objectives to be consistent with 21st C. Not holding my breath.

Yes, but I think you'll find that was 'pre-medieval' and never actually existed - despite Edward III perpetuating the myth by 're-burying' Arthur and Guinevere and having a replica of the Round Table made (which can still be seen in Winchester). Wonderful legends, sadly untrue.

You are right, but then there were lots of medieval courts, not just in England, some of them more vicious than others. All of them essentially mafia-like. It's one way to run government and, yes, it needs myth and religion to give it legitimacy over its arbitrary injustice.

But consider how much tougher the China challenge will be for the US if Putin is seen to succeed in Ukraine, with Western loss of confidence and credibility. And conversely, how differently Beijing might react if it sees that we really do (eventually) mean what we say.

As you doubtless realise, wars come to be about many things. Putin loses no opportunity to interpret his invasion of Ukraine as the front line in a 'fundamental realignment' of world politics to undermine the West. No reason the West has to accept that as if powerless to stop it.

'Use of all opportunities' might be the best way to characterise it. Mark Galeotti usefully coined the 'Gerasimov Doctrine' as a label, following Gerasimov's 2013 thinking - not solely about war, but long term, antagonistic, zero-sum game global strategy. China seems to agree it.

Are there you are Mark. Even when you're talking rubbish (as you've said before) you make a strange sort of sense - at least to me.

Thank you Iain Martin I'm currently writing a refresh of the Exec Summary of the paper with FES London Hopefully out next week...

thetimes.com/article/670ec2…

There were 'realistic deals' to be made with Hitler's Nazi Germany in 1937, 1939 and even in May 1940 after German forces had swept across Europe. I guess you think great opportunities were missed in each case to establish lasting peace in Europe by satisfying escalating demands?

Terry: Agree. I never used the historical appeasement comparison before Putin's 2022 invasion. Now I do, because - aside from modern circumstances - I don't see any fundamental differences. It's an eerily similar policy problem for the democratic states.

Karl: I honestly don't think that is western policy. But some govts are; 1) so frightened of the 'escalation' dynamic and, 2) trying to handle this crisis without inconveniencing themselves too much, that your point represents what is actually happening, just at the moment.

Yes, funnily enough, after a career studying and teaching twentieth century international relations, I have read quite a lot of them.

Yes, the very point! Lots of appeasement thinking then was based on the idea of a 'realistic/cynical' deal that would satisfy Hitler et. al. But the strength of 30s appeasement emotions and allied disunity just kept feeding their ambitions.

James; it's not so much generosity as the observation that what passes for any single 'policy'- particularly in a multinational context - is always a mash-up of half-understood intentions, compromises, unintended consequences. Almost never one, clear thing, whatever leaders say.

Let me just remark once again that Armenia’s efforts at getting closer to the EU and the Free World will be in vain if the Georgian Dream gets to stay in power and impose Russian order in Georgia, which they most certainly intend to do.