Voters not only flexibly believe misinformation to support their partisan views, but also openly flout facts in defense of supposedly deeper truths consistent with their partisanship
el.press.uchicago.edu/ls/click?upn=u…

Most Black Americans say that even if crime is declining and new police reforms are not enacted, they would still prefer to maintain (or increase) police patrols and spending.
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

donor-targeted campaign Facebook messages are more toxic, negative, and likely to reference a polarizing president than voter-targeting messages. Republican candidates use more toxic language in fundraising
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…

National Science Foundation funding in political science went overwhelmingly to quantitative research & methods, helping to drive the field in that direction
cambridge.org/core/journals/…

the reported vote from post-election ANES surveys accurately measures the actual vote (it is off by 2.23 percentage points, on average); the intended vote measure from pre-election surveys reasonably accurately predicts the actual aggregate popular vote
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

American identity predicts preferences for curbing the civil liberties of Muslim citizens across the partisan divide; it consistently explains the endorsement of exclusionary policies among Democrats
cambridge.org/core/journals/…

Republican state legislative majorities get rolled 4X as often as Democratic majorities, a finding that holds both across and within institutions. There is also greater agenda influence for Democratic majorities
nowpublishers.com/article/Detail…

From 2010-2014, increases in turnout greatly benefited Democrats. But the education flip changed that. In 2016, 2018, & 2020, Democrats saw much smaller gains as simulated turnout increased, but also a large advantage when voter turnout is extremely low
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…

The paper introducing the second release of the Most Important Problem dataset is now published in JEPOP (with Laron K Williams). The dataset will soon be publicly available through Cornell's Roper Center. tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…

Voters dislike inflation a lot, do not see a trade-off with employment, & credit themselves for income gains while blaming elites for price rises
economist.com/finance-and-ec…

The portfolios of Democrat & Republican retail investors have continued diverging, along with their economic expectations based on the party of the president
economist.com/finance-and-ec…

Congressional Republicans are talking an awful lot about 'campus' right now in official e-newsletters.

I was on WILX 2 days in a row: 1st to talk about our Science vs. Science Fiction quiz event at Hooked:
wilx.com/2024/04/25/sci…
& then to talk about RFK Jr at our capitol event:
wilx.com/2024/04/25/exp…
I suppose they are a bit related.

I was a guest on stateside (at ~12:48) to discuss Michigan as a swing state & the diploma divide:
michiganpublic.org/show/stateside…

Preparing for the first session of a social research methods course at Birkbeck, we're reading the first chapter of 'How social science got better' by Matt Grossmann.
This would be very useful for #tleap research!

Looks like Michigan is the most likely tipping point state based on current polling averages:
abcnews.go.com/538/trump-lead…

Good morning! 538 is out today with averages of presidential general election polls.

The national polls are currently about tied, with a slight Trump lead that's within our uncertainty interval. Trump is tied or leads in all battleground states.

Story: abcnews.go.com/538/trump-lead…

Aging effects on partisanship in a period & cohort model show Democratic & Independent identification decline with age:
books.google.com/books/about/Ge…
Earlier version:
preprints.apsanet.org/engage/api-gat…

The foreign policy establishment won a big victory with Ukraine, Israel, & Taiwan funding & TikTok forced sale & even won on immigration by punting. Perhaps not as much has changed as we think; foreign policy is still elite driven & internationalist
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…

expansion of cell phone coverage increased incidence of global protest from 2007 to 2014 by increasing protester communication & coverage of (& cost of) crackdowns
#SocSciResearch
nowpublishers.com/article/Detail…