AAPL is quietly advancing in AI. Piecing together the sleeping giant's intentions with the recent paper announcements:

LLM in a flash: Efficient Large Language Model Inference with Limited Memory (Dec-23)
'The standard approach is to load the entire model into DRAM; however,…

Been testing $Waymo vs $TSLA FSD in SF. Some subtle differences in user experience, but both are remarkably impressive. As FSD rolls out to 2M vehicles in the U.S. and Waymo expands beyond SF, this year might redefine the automotive industry's history.

▶️$Waymo vs. $TSLA FSD…

AI Agents Arriving on Your Screen:

It cannot be a coincidence that major companies are all advancing AI technologies designed to interpret text, images, and webpages right off users' screens.

$AAPL: ReALM - an AI system designed to grasp tasks on screen, understand…

Tsla's moat in self driving

The self-driving space has been a battleground of ideas: LiDAR vs. cameras, rule-based to end-to-end. A lot of dead bodies with new entrants keep coming. As FSD pivots to end-to-end, there are a lot of discussions around its moat - why can’t other…

2023 Modern Acquirers Snapshot: $Stripe $ADYEN $PYPL Braintree Update

Most notable updates:
$Adyen showcased a V-shaped performance in 2023, with EBITDA multiple moving from 50x to 20x and then to 40x.
$Stripe returned to profitability.
$PYPL Braintree may adopt a less…

Have not seen this pace of development at $TSLA for a very long time... Offering FSD free trial across all fleets (even better if there can be more flexible pricing) could greatly unlock value.

Existing US fleet:
- ~2.5M vehicles, currently at a 15% FSD attach rate.
- Assuming a…

Been 16 months since $OpenAI introduced ChatGPT. The world has been waiting to see more successful product launches from $OpenAI/ the LLMs. Here are some insights into the potential future directions, informed by recent developments:

▶️Agent: This should be the year we see true…

Klarna's latest move is a game-changer: AI completed tasks, diverging from the common copilot approach. This should escalate the 'collapse' of the $500B customer service industry.

'AI-enabled customer services' will become table stakes, and the first movers will be rewarded by…

TSLA possesses 'unfair advantages' to be a leader in robotics. Here's why:

▶️Hardware Expertise:

$TSLA's decade-plus expertise in hardware design and deep supply chain relationships give it a substantial lead over robotic startups.

Shared components vs EV: Both robots and EVs…

'Where’s the power?'

GPU deployment faces a major hurdle: power access for data centers, thanks to GPUs' massive energy hunger.

Each AI server uses 5-9x more power (6.5kw for A100/10.2kw for H100) than traditional CPU servers & needs 10x+ more cooling. With $NVDA's new chips on…

Is GenAI reshaping social networks?

Today:

Networks are defined by social graphs (Facebook) OR interest graphs (TikTok), focusing on connections OR content consumption. Hard/impossible to have both done well on the same platform. Reels had to pivot from leveraging social graphs…

PayPal: Time For a Radical Transformation?

PayPal is a classic example of a once-leading innovator that has become bloated and missed out on its vast opportunities.

It is too big, too slow, and lacks innovation. With over 20 assets spread out across 30 offices, including many…

Vision Pro: The Future of Monitors - long virtual screens, short physical screens.

Apple Vision Pro  News redefines monitors with virtual screens, offering 40 PPD quality akin to 4K monitors, a big step function change over Meta Quest's 20 PPD.

Even better, users can tailor screen…

Incentive plans = cheat sheets for companies’ future performance.

🌟Success Stories:

Top performers like $TSLA and $PANW have stock performance as a key component in their incentive plans.

$TSLA's remarkable plan allowed Elon to earn options for achieving 12 targets linked to…

Meta's China ads rev / TEMU spend

2023 = 13.5B ('In 2023, revenue from China-based advertisers represented 10% of our overall revenue')
2022 = 7.7B
Delta = 5.8B ('contributed 5pp to total worldwide revenue growth')

Right on point my earlier estimate (tweet below), calling China…

PYPL's Journey: A Case Study of its Rise & Fall

Stock plummeted 80%+ from its June-21 peak, now trading at 2017's price and an 11.5x forward P/E.

📊What went wrong?

0% True Revenue Growth: A concerning trend with 7 consecutive quarters of zero gross profit growth.

Yield Drop:…

Below analysis shows that Venmo is shockingly under-monetized by ~50%, or $2B.
100% agree with Alex's Alex Chriss recent CNBC comment that Venmo has a lot of monetization potential but has not been focused on profitable growth historically.

#⃣ Venmo vs. Cash App Comparison:

-…

Evaluating how 'fit' fintech companies are. Very surprised to see $PYPL as a winner here - what does it imply?

COVID-era Hiring Trends: Contrary to popular belief, $PYPL did better than peers in managing its workforce growth, with only a 5% CAGR in headcount from 2018 to 2023.…

Impressed by Figure's rapid progress! Founded in 2022, they've already inked commercial deals and plan to ship this year. Things are finally moving FAST in robotics!

One common challenge in robotics is that commercialization is always 5 years away.

Companies like…

As the field of robotics approaches its 'GPT moment,' humanoids are becoming the center of attention, drawing significant funding and sparking key debates.

🤖Why humanoid? Is it worth the ROI?

General purpose suitability: Our environments are human-centric, so theoretically,…