If Russia gets away with seizing Ukraine, China may want to follow suit. Some similarities with 1930s to ponder. China may not confine itself to renaming locales in Arunachal Pradesh

Big indeed. But as US is increasingly distracted, 3%, as during the Cold War, will become the target

Here's a version of the FT chart for the UK: even more dramatic.

We aren't 'begging (India) for money and arms or use (India) as proxies to fight Russia.'. France is a member of the European Union which has a long border with Russia which is at war with a candidate country. Btw, in my recollection, many of India's arms do not come from India

We aren’t begging Europe for money & arms or use us as proxies to fight China. We are confronting it militarily & also talking & trading. While China is claiming our territory & directly threatening us, am not aware Russia claims French land &has massed forces on French border.

As for LNG, I'm glad that you assume that flows will continue to remain undisturbed. Of course, Russia would never deal in any sort of hybrid warfare. #utternonsense

I don't get too worried when the taps of my bathtub stop working: I can call a plumber and get the taps replaced. Not sure in the case of Ukrainian gas storage that the equivalent of the plumber will be able to work without being disturbed. Note: there's a war going on

AMOC running amok?...
Sorry for the irresistible pun on what is a seriously important topic. To be read

Pray give us your precious counsel on handling a big next door neighbour, ie China in your case

Indeed. But US and others actually preferred to keep NATO to the margins, working through the Ramstein group. That had merits (50+ countries involved) - but Ramstein isn't an operational planning institution

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 779

1. Very bad missile night:
1800 MW thermal power plant in Kyiv obl. destroyed.
Giant underground gas storage targeted by 3 Kinzhals.
Only 18/54 missiles down.
2. EUParliament suspends vote of EUCouncil budget to delivery of 7 Patriot systems run by EU countries

Important choice of target by Russia : Europe's gas stockpile for next winter is at stake

Dear Mick, I usually praise your threads. But suggesting a new strategy for 🇺🇦 without mentioning Europe as a whole strikes me as odd. Whatever the strategy should be, the reality now is that we -Europe- have to pick up where the US ( 1/2 of Western mil aid) to 🇺🇦has left off

Le Parlement européen a refusé d'approuver le financement du Conseil de l'UE jusqu'à ce que l'Ukraine reçoive sept nouveaux systèmes Patriot

#Ukraine 🇺🇦👊 eurointegration.com.ua/news/2024/04/1…

Superbe liste. Heureux d'en être

The TPP hit in #Kyiv fell victim to a new missile... an adapted version of the Kh-69.

#Russia has increased its range from 300km to 400km according to Defense Express publication, which also showed these photos.

#StopRussia #StandWithUkraine

Fascinating piece on China's H-bomp programme. Apparently, 'beating the French' was a powerful motivator... thebulletin.org/2024/04/the-sh…

Indeed (and the chart Macron is displaying re 155mm shells & CAESAR is encouraging). Remember though that it takes more time to ramp up an industrial process than to show a bar chart. 2024 will continue to be a veet tough year for 🇺🇦, so all in Europe must do more ASAP

Good European stuff happening as the Biden-Trump policy vis à vis the war against 🇺🇦prevails . But will enough stuff happen quickly enough? Note: I know Biden & Trump have different views. But one (self-deterrence) & the other (Trump's no-arms lock on Congress) operate in tandem

NATO SACEUR: “Russia is reconstituting that force far faster than our initial estimates suggested.”