My new Wisdom of Crowds essay on why I started doubting the conventional wisdom on the Trump raid. Simply put, I don't see any plausible scenario where this ends up being good for American democracy. A thread 🧵

wisdomofcrowds.live/trumps-fall-co…

What troubles me is the certainty of so much liberal-left commentary. They are so sure they are right and that certainty makes me nervous. Even if you think the Trump raid was justified, there's no reason to celebrate it. I see glee but I think lamentation would more appropriate.

Even if the Mar-a-Lago search was meant to reinforce the rule of law, it is likely to fail on its own terms. What exactly is the mechanism through which this strengthens the rule of law? This is simply assumed, but rarely explained.

I keep hearing tautological explanations to the effect of 'enforcing laws reinforces the rule of law.' This is obviously tautological, and it's somewhat shocking to me that people don't question this sort of logic, which is plainly illogical.

When we talk about rule of law, legitimacy matters. Perceptions of legitimacy matter. I think @damonlinker put it best: “The rule of law can't be vindicated if half the country thinks the effort to do so is a sham.” For me, that's what it comes down to.

damonlinker.substack.com/p/america-is-a…

The most bizarre development of the past week is Democrats and liberals' sudden, unquestioning trust in law enforcement and the FBI. This is the FBI we're talking about, an agency that spent years targeting American Muslims post-9/11. And did people forget about the Comey letter?

Shadi Hamid Lol nobody is unquestioning about law enforcement and the FBI. But a lot of us want to wait for more facts before we rush to judgment and declare it a sham.

Plus how about the conservatives who scream that people 'should just comply' except when their guy is targeted.

@NolanZugernat Shadi Hamid Back the blue except when it’s after you, or a coup.

Sorry. Bad rhyme, It just came out because I’m so disgusted with the water carriers for a grifter.