New poll from the Social Research Foundation:

ANC 37%
DA 25%
MK 14%
EFF 11%
IFP 5%
ActionSA 2%

SRF with a pretty consistent view of the electorate: ANC high 30s/low 40s and DA mid 20s. Would be an exceptional result for the DA! Let's see...

Steenhuisen: A DA-ANC coalition not off the table mg.co.za/politics/2024-…

This is currently my base case expectation.

(With many other possibilities, obviously)

Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni says the Cabinet is proud of what they have done and achieved over the past three decades of democracy to change the lives of poor South Africans for the better. ow.ly/lBSm50R44GP

For the record, now that MK is definitely on the ballot, Mpumalanga should be on everyone’s radar. The swings there may be significant, and surprising.

The markdata poll picked it up. The one by-election in Govan Mbeki picked it up. I’m informally hearing some MP rumblings.

uMsinga is a vital IFP lynchpin in central KZN. 86 000 voters.

2021:
IFP 68%
ANC 26%

MK's pattern of events in the coming weeks will be a big tell. Key question is whether they are willing/able to crack Ugu and Harry Gwala districts in the South (those are crucial to the ANC).

This is where the most South Africans are registered to vote overseas:

London 19518
The Hague 5572
Canberra 2609
Dubai 2574
Dublin 2341
Wellington 1666
Abu Dhabi 1415
New York 1379
Washington 1228
Berlin 1188

101 other locations: 19312