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Andy Holmes

@CanaryAndy

calendar_today03-05-2014 18:41:13

101,6K Tweets

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pluto ellis edmond beale Andy Mayer Kristian Niemietz That's not true though.

Covid borrowing was temporary. Borrowing and economic demand was all but restored within 2 years.

Brexit borrowing (or tax rises) are structural, permanent (until we rejoin the SM at least)

That's why brexit was twice as costly as brexit.

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pluto ellis edmond beale Andy Mayer Kristian Niemietz Not really.

20 year bond yields during 2020 averaged 1.5%, so borrowing costs for covid were low, and locked in for decades.

Brexit borrowing is continuing today, at far higher bond yeilds.

Not all borrowing is equal.

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pluto ellis edmond beale Andy Mayer Kristian Niemietz You're looking snapshot, while I'm seeing the big picture.

There is short term 'noise' in economic growth figures, but longer term trends show brexit damage more clearly.

You're clutching at any straw you can find.

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pluto ellis edmond beale Andy Mayer Kristian Niemietz So you've gone from 'German recession proves brexit's value' to 'we can't know for at least 20 years'

We can know because there are no credible prosoects of success

A US FTA is inly worth 0.2% of GDP
CPTTP membership inly worth 0.08%
There's nothing credible to make brexit work

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