📊 Labour lead at 21pts
Westminster voting intention

LAB: 42% (-2)
CON: 21% (-)
REF: 15% (-)
LDEM: 12% (+3)
GRN: 6% (+1)

via Redfield & Wilton Strategies, 12 May
buff.ly/3RtUuW6

📊 Labour lead at 18pts
Westminster voting intention

LAB: 45% (+2)
CON: 27% (+1)
REF: 10% (-)
LDEM: 8% (-2)
GRN: 6% (+1)

via Deltapoll, 10 May
buff.ly/3RtUuW6

📊 Labour lead at 20pts
Westminster voting intention

LAB: 44% (-)
CON: 24% (-2)
LDEM: 10% (-1)
REF: 8% (-)
GRN: 7% (+3)

via Survation., 09 May
buff.ly/3RtUuW6

📊 Labour lead at 24pts
Westminster voting intention

LAB: 45% (+1)
CON: 21% (-1)
REF: 12% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (+1)
GRN: 6% (-)

via Techne UK, 08 May
buff.ly/3RtUuW6

📊 Labour lead at 30pts
Westminster voting intention

LAB: 48% (+4)
CON: 18% (-)
REF: 13% (-2)
LDEM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-1)

via YouGov, 07 May
buff.ly/3RtUuW6

Is Labour still on course to win big? Short discussion ft. Ben Walker (+ read sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/does-l…) x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

A spreadsheet of the 2024 local election results is now available sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britai…

How the Britain Elects/The New Statesman BE/NS forecast stacks up against the actual results.

Cons bang on
Lab under by 87
LDems under by 25
Grns overperform by 22
Indies overperform by 86

Analysis:
buff.ly/3JO0qWJ

How well did Labour do in the 2024 local elections? Our analysis
buff.ly/3JO0qWJ

New post: Labour underperformed my forecast by almost 100 council seats. Does it matter? sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/does-l…

📊 Labour lead at 23pts
Westminster voting intention

LAB: 44% (-1)
CON: 21% (-1)
REF: 15% (+1)
LDEM: 9% (-)
GRN: 5% (-1)

via Redfield & Wilton Strategies, 05 May
buff.ly/3RtUuW6

How my Britain Elects The New Statesman forecast stacks up against the final results.

Worsley and Westwood Park (Salford) council election result:

LAB: 49.0% (+13.0)
CON: 37.8% (-4.6)
GRN: 7.8% (-5.7)
LDEM: 5.4% (-2.7)

Labour GAIN from Conservative.

sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britai…

Quays (Salford) council election result:

LDEM: 39.2% (+13.1)
LAB: 37.4% (-9.8)
GRN: 15.4% (-3.1)
CON: 8.0% (-0.3)

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.

sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britai…

Kersal and Broughton Park (Salford) council election result:

CON: 54.5% (+6.8)
LAB: 32.9% (+13.8)
GRN: 7.7% (-1.9)
LDEM: 4.9% (-18.8)

Conservative HOLD.

sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britai…

📊 Labour lead at 16pts
Westminster voting intention

LAB: 40% (-1)
CON: 24% (-1)
REF: 12% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (+1)
GRN: 7% (-)

via Opinium, 01 May
buff.ly/3RtUuW6