🇷🇺🇨🇳 - In new sign that Russia-China no-limits friendship may have limits, Chinese banks now decline processing transactions for Russian firms buying Chinese servers/storage systems; move highlights Beijing's fears of falling foul of US secondary sanctions
kommersant.ru/doc/6636979

So far actual drop in refinery runs was much lower. #Russia ’s official weekly refinery output data through late March is consistent with crude runs at 5m to 5.2m b/d, rather than 4.6m b/d that a bottom-up assessment of refinery outages would indicate: IEA
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

🇨🇭 - In (yet another) illustration of strength of pro-Moscow sentiment (and disinformation) in many parts of Europe, Switzerland's rightwing populist SVP party has triggered a referendum to end sanctions on Russia
ft.com/content/b097b2…

Top Millennials coining it; average ones, not so much. ft.com/content/46d8bd…

KAL's cartoon in this week's The Economist #Ukraine

In my latest ECFR commentary, I argue why the EU should double down on the Middle Corridor, addressing existing challenges posed by Russia and China. Supporting the construction of this transport would give the EU geoeconomic influence in Central Asia. 👇
ecfr.eu/article/risk-a…

📰 'There is no European consensus about the risks that China's industrial overcapacity pose' - Agathe Demarais comments on Europe's diverging degrees of economic reliance on China in South China Morning Post 👇
buff.ly/3VSt14j

In Brussels, the mood is all about US-proofing policies ahead of a potential return of #Trump in 2025. But India’s tough stance at the WTO ministerial conference should signal that the EU shouldn't put all of its eggs in one basket.

Agathe Demarais ECFR

buff.ly/3TAht31

Good piece Agathe Demarais on why export controls ill-advised for clean tech. “unilateral export controls can only work for technologies where the US has a global edge.” She highlights a few reasons they can backfire, even if multi-lateral. There are even tradeoffs on tariffs

The downfall of Gazprom:

2022 revenue from gas: 3.8% of Russian GDP.
2023 revenue from gas: 2.0% of Russian GDP.

When Gazprom cut gas supplies to the EU, it killed the goose that laid the golden eggs. 2022 was a bombastic year, but now Gazprom's gas business is losing money.

🇮🇳🇪🇺 - India's stance at Abu Dhabi WTO summit holds key lessons for EU trade policy - global resentment is rising against Europe's green trade tools and developing economies have leverage to retaliate against such measures - here's my latest for ECFR 👇
ecfr.eu/article/forget…

Super-interesting: Cheney recollecting the joint staff told him in 1991 it would take 17 tactical nuclear weapons to destroy an Iraqi Republican Guard division. And that's with greater concentration of force than exists in Ukraine today (not that anyone's operating as a division)

'The stricter govt procurement guidance also seeks to sideline Microsoft’s Windows operating system and foreign-made database software in favour of domestic options.'

The fact that this has been a policy goal since ~2014 shows how hard this actually is ft.com/content/7bf0f7…

Europe (rightly) worries about a trade war with the US if Trump wins, but it does not nearly worry enough about tensions with developing countries. My colleague Agathe Demarais brilliantly explains why India's WTO stance is an appetizer of what is to come.
ecfr.eu/article/forget…

Must-read from Agathe Demarais on the perils of using export controls in the renewable energy context. This would strain relations w/ allies, fuel resentment against democracies, and show the US is comfortable weaponizing the fight against climate change.
us.boell.org/en/2024/03/06/…

🇺🇸🇨🇳 - Would US export controls on clean tech work? In a policy brief for Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Heinrich Böll Foundation Washington, DC I explain why such measures would probably be detrimental to US-EU relations and fail to undermine China's global domination over the clean tech sector👇
us.boell.org/en/2024/03/06/…

.Bruegel EU gas import tracker:
-imports via Turkstream continue to grow and started exceeding Ukrainian transit;
-total imports are decreasing, driven by lower LNG imports;
-imports from Algeria are increasing;
-EU storage at highest week 12 levels.
bruegel.org/dataset/europe…

🇮🇳🇪🇺 - India's stance at Abu Dhabi WTO summit holds key lessons for EU trade policy - global resentment is rising against Europe's green trade tools and developing economies have leverage to retaliate against such measures - here's my latest for ECFR 👇
ecfr.eu/article/forget…

Check out this piece from our ECFR senior policy fellow Agathe Demarais on US export controls on clean tech 👇🌱

🎧Nell'ultimo episodio di #TheWorldIn30Minutes , @Markhleonard dà il benvenuto a Agathe Demarais e Stephen Adams per discutere di de-risking e del suo impatto sull'🇪🇺​ e sull'economia globale.
Ascolta il podcast qui👇 buff.ly/4abizJ6